| The prime minister himself hailed "the Windsor Framework" a "decisive breakthrough" in his press conference that wrapped up an hour ago. Ursula von der Leyen was full of effusive language, too. Now all eyes turn from Windsor to Westminster and Belfast.Rolling coverage on the latest here.  Rishi Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen during a joint news conference on a post-Brexit deal, in Windsor, on Feb. 27. Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
Over the course of the evening, we'll learn the reaction from tough-to-persuade quarters. For this reason, Bloomberg's Lizzy Burden called it a "referendum on Rishi Sunak." Everyone agrees it is the most critical day in the prime minister's tenure so far.
So what are the key elements? This is what the PM himself highlighted: Strong safeguards that will allow goods to move more freely across the Irish Sea. The establishment of red and green lanes for goods, as well as real-time data-sharing, which will enable Northern Ireland supermarkets to stock the same food as in Great Britain. And importantly, an emergency "Stormont brake" for the NI Assembly on new EU regulations, which Westminster will then have a power of veto over. As this email reaches your inbox, eyes will be on three places — the unionists in Northern Ireland, hard line Brexiters in the Tory party and then, well, former PM Boris Johnson. Bloomberg's Alex Wickham and Ellen Milligan reported this weekend that the expectation was there were around 20 Tories opposed. Rebels told them that number could double. But No. 10 mounted considerable efforts to persuade key characters and when there is a vote — which the PM today promised there would be — must be hoping to keep numbers down. The early signs are positive for the government. The day started with Jacob Rees-Mogg saying the PM had done "very well" to wring some of these concessions out of the EU. And Steve Baker, a Minister rumoured to be wobbling, has come out in fulsome support (he's been swiftly denounced by former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries.) Beltway process story or transformational for the UK? Outside of Northern Ireland, while it's true the Windsor Framework won't come up on many doorsteps, it's probably a precondition for other desirable developments. If Sunak can get through this evening without too many critics in parliament, it will help him over the longer term assert authority over MPs. Today will help reset relations with the EU including Emmanuel Macron (who Sunak needs to help him in stopping small boats, another of his pledges to the British public.) But possibly most importantly, the UK has a problem with trade and investment, and this should be welcome WD-40. The Office for Budget Responsibility warned last year that investment was being "held back…by elevated uncertainty" – economist speak for the possibility of a UK-EU trade war. Economists think a deal could unleash billions in investment. British businesses have built up a cash war chest of about £100 billion since the pandemic but investment has stalled due to uncertainty about the UK's relationship with the EU, Kallum Pickering, an economist at Berenberg Bank told Bloomberg's reporters. "If you get rid of Brexit uncertainty, business can start to use some of this cash to invest."
He thought it could be as great as 10% a year investment growth. With the Windsor framework done, lets see if he's right. In November, the European Commission proposed sweeping packaging regulations that would require companies selling products in EU countries to make their packaging easier to reuse, recycle or in some cases compost. These tougher EU targets on packaging waste could provide a framework for better global plastics policies. | 
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