Monday, February 6, 2023

Alt season edition: When the music stops

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Welcome to the new crypto newsletter by FXStreet! Every Monday we will bring you the most actionable stories from the crypto market to make sure you are well-prepared for the trading week ahead.
By Akash Girimath
Cryptocurrencies Lead Analyst FXStreet
Heya folks,

How's it going? Week one of February was swamped with top-tier macroeconomic events relating to the Fed and the US. These events triggered a spike in volatility in the short term but this week is going to be relatively silent.

This week, let's take another look at the ongoing bull rally, alt season, and what to expect. Altcoins rally under two conditions
  1. Bitcoin is bullish
  2. Bitcoin consolidates after a bullish ascent, i.e., BTC dominance drops
In a bear market, minor rallies are typical, but the 2023 rally has pushed many altcoins to do a 3x in less than a month. Clearly, we are in an alt season. 

So far, there have been two major alt seasons, three if you include the ongoing one. 

While the first one took place in Q4 2021 when the entire market was in a bull run, the second could be attributed to Ethereum's Pre-Merge hardfork rally. The ongoing alt season is surprising, but there is a common denominator during alt seasons – a drop in Bitcoin dominance.

Although BTC dominance is on the decline, altcoin dominance is relatively stable. If this trend continues, altcoins are likely going to pump like in the game of musical chairs. Bitcoin price, however, is showing signs of weakness on multiple timeframes and will be the ultimate judge of whether this fun will continue or end.

Alt season

Bitcoin's role in culling the alt season

  • Bitcoin price shows a cluster of hurdles on multiple timeframes at $25,000.
  • While a surprising push up to $25,000 is possible, a breakdown of the $23,000 support level will trigger a correction that could extend as low as $18,600.
  • This move will definitely dent the altcoin season, but a further correction in BTC could put an end to this bull rally.
  • Investors need to note that the big picture is still bearish. The last lower high at $25,205 is still unconquered.
  • In the event that BTC produces a higher high above $25,205, triggering a spike in buying pressure from sidelined buyers and potentially kick-start a run-up to $25,000.

BTC/USDT 3-day chart

 

An unusual spike in the NFP numbers last week and a stronger US Dollar could pose a risk to the ongoing rally in Bitcoin price. As US Dollar bounces off 101, a retest of 105 and a potential push above this level is likely and could threaten the crypto bull rally. 

Therefore, investors need to be cautious with the ongoing bull rally and not push their risk, especially when they know that the music could come to a stop at any moment.
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