Sunday, February 5, 2023

5 things to start your day

Good morning. The US shoots down alleged Chinese spy balloon, the yen tumbles on rumors of a new Bank of Japan governor and more pain for Ad

Good morning. The US shoots down alleged Chinese spy balloon, the yen tumbles on rumors of a new Bank of Japan governor and more pain for Adani stocks. Here's what people are talking about.

Chinese Balloon 

The US sent divers to salvage what they believe is spy equipment from the Chinese balloon shot down off South Carolina, as pressure mounted on President Joe Biden to hit back at Beijing with new export controls on sensitive technology. The government anticipates finding equipment capable of taking detailed photographs, along with other sensors, one person familiar with the matter said. US lawmakers are already demanding to know if the balloon's payload contains technology from the US or its allies, another person said.

BOJ Governor

The Japanese government has approached Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya about succeeding Haruhiko Kuroda at the helm of the central bank, according to a Nikkei report that sent the yen tumbling.  Japan's deputy government spokesman later refuted the report, saying it wasn't based on fact, but the currency remained weaker suggesting that at least some investors believed it had substance.

Adani Decline

The stock rout in Gautam Adani's indebted conglomerate entered a third week, after its flagship firm suffered a fresh fundraising setback and a major credit rating agency downgraded the outlook for two companies. The group's 10 stocks all fell in early Mumbai trading. Adani Enterprises, the flagship, dropped as much as 9.7%. The meltdown since US short-seller Hindenburg Research made fraud allegations against the conglomerate in a Jan. 24 report has wiped out $118 billion, or more than half of its market value. 

Turkey Earthquake

A powerful earthquake struck southern Turkey before dawn on Monday, killing at least five people and trapping an unknown number of others in pancaked apartment buildings in several provinces as rescue workers raced to save them, the government said. The quake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.4 struck at a depth of 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) with an epicenter near the city of Gaziantep, according to Turkey's Kandilli observatory based in Istanbul.

Coming Up

European shares are poised to drop as a hot US jobs report and simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing damp sentiment. Austrian central bank Governor Robert Holzmann and Bank of England rate-setter Catherine Mann headline a conference in Budapest. UK nurses and ambulance drivers strike in the latest round of industrial action. UK car registrations and Germany factory orders are among expected data. Earnings season continues with Aurubis, Fabege and Credito Emiliano among companies reporting.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours

And finally, here is what Eddie is interested in this morning

Notch one to central banks in the faceoff with traders over the direction of policy, with jobs data on Friday leaning strongly in favor of higher for longer.

Not only did the headline US nonfarm payroll number come in much higher than expected, wage growth was also faster than expected. Translated, inflation remains high, and the economy is strong enough to sustain more hikes.

And, believers in the gambler's fallacy will tell us, after six months of cooling inflation, we're probably due for a disappointing reading. Remember, too, that the reaction function in markets has been heavily geared towards good news -- just look at how they priced dovish to the essentially hawkish readings from Lagarde and Powell. The sum total of those two facts is that we're (probably) due a good dose of realism.

But there's a long game to be played here, too. The labor force participation rate, despite ticking higher in the latest data, remains below pre-pandemic levels. As those workers return, downward pressure on wages will result. Combine that with the natural over-capacity that ripples behind supply shortages, and there are substantial disinflationary forces latent in this economy.

The coming months will be mighty interesting.

This commentary first ran on Markets Live on the Bloomberg Terminal, where Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor based in London. Follow him on Twitter at @EdVanDerWalt

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