Wednesday, February 1, 2023

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Good morning. ECB and BOE rate hikes, there is still more work for the Fed and Adani's empire is crumbling. Here's what people are talking a

Good morning. ECB and BOE rate hikes, there is still more work for the Fed and Adani's empire is crumbling. Here's what people are talking about. 

Europe's Turn

The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates on Thursday and the Bank of England on the same day is likely to deliver its 10th consecutive interest-rate increase, following in the footsteps of the Fed. Economists and investors anticipate ECB and BOE to each raise by a half point. Policy makers in the UK led by Governor Andrew Bailey also will unveil their inflation and growth forecasts, probably pointing to a shallower recession than they projected in November.

More Work

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers expect to deliver a "couple" more interest-rate increases before putting their aggressive tightening campaign on hold, even as they slowed their drive to curb inflation. Powell and his colleagues lifted the Fed's target for its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Still, investors took heart from the chair's remarks acknowledging that price pressures have started to ease, despite his emphasis on the Fed's outlook for more rate hikes. The S&P 500 closed more than 1% higher after he spoke and two-year yields fell sharply.

Year of Efficiency

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg struck a new tone with investors Wednesday: The social media giant will be leaner, more efficient and more decisive, with a big assist from artificial intelligence. The company's shares gained in late trading on fourth-quarter revenue that beat expectations. Zuckerberg, who has spent the past year promising a faraway future in a digital world called the metaverse, called 2023 the "Year of Efficiency." Meta, whose shares have gained 27% so far this year, is on the rebound after the worst year for its stock in history.

In Crisis

Gautam Adani's beleaguered empire is spiraling into crisis as the fallout from a short-seller's fraud allegations leads to a worsening meltdown in the indebted conglomerate's securities. Bonds of the Indian billionaire's flagship firm plunged to distressed levels in US trading, and the company abruptly pulled a record domestic stock offering after the Adani group suffered a $92 billion market crash. Banks either want more collateral for loans or are scrutinizing the value of the company's debt to lend against. 

Coming Up…

European stocks are set to follow their Asian and US peers higher after dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Following the Fed's rate hike, investors are awaiting clues on the path ahead for the ECB and BOE, which are also expected to lift rates today. Members of SNB Governing Board speak. Expected data include Germany's trade balance Greece's unemployment. Shell, Julius Baer and Deutsche Bank are among a full slate of companies scheduled to report earnings.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Eddie is interested in this morning

Markets are making it clear they're not scared to fight the central banks. And it's not just bond traders who are openly questioning -- and betting against -- whether interest rates will continue to rise as much as policymakers say they will. Many UK homeowners are putting their biggest single assets on the line and turning to floating-rate mortgages rather than locking in interest rates for two or five years, as they usually do.

About one fifth searched for variable-rate deals in November and December, up from close to 5% a year earlier, according to Koodoo, which looks at data from its mortgage-comparison platform used by price-comparison sites. That partly reflects the belief in lower rates, but also simply reflects that tracker rates are just cheaper right now, as Tom Rees and Damian Shepherd point out.

Traders took a largely dovish message from Powell & Co. at the Fed on Wednesday and it's now over to the ECB and the BOE to deal with a more tricky situation of slower growth and more persistent inflation. Such real-economy bets against central banks complicate the picture because they speed up the transmission mechanism from higher rates to lower consumer spending. And make today's meetings more interesting.

This commentary first ran on Markets Live on the Bloomberg Terminal, where Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor based in London. Follow him on Twitter at @EdVanDerWalt

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