Monday, January 30, 2023

Brussels Edition: Digging in

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.French labor unions are

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

French labor unions are leading more mass strikes and protests today against raising the retirement age in a key test of the momentum driving defiance to President Macron's signature economic reform. Macron faced the biggest protests of his time as president on Jan. 19 when the country's usually fragmented unions united to bring more than 1.1 million people onto the streets. Polls carried out since suggest opposition is swelling and growing numbers are ready to join the protests. But Macron has pledged to see his program through, and backing down would endanger a fundamental part of the president's strategy to steady France's deficit-ridden finances and improve the economy. 

Natalia Drozdiak and William Horobin

What's Happening

Waning Influence |  Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine partly to assert Russia's regional dominance. Nearly a year on, the Russian president has achieved the opposite. Former Soviet states in central Asia and the Caucasus are looking for ways to reduce dependence on Moscow by turning to rival powers including Turkey, the EU and Middle East countries. 

Bleak Brexit | Brexit is costing the UK economy £100 billion a year ($124 billion), with the effects spanning everything from business investment to the ability of companies to hire workers. An analysis by Bloomberg Economics three years after Britain left the EU paints a bleak picture of the damage done by the way the split has been implemented. 

Catching Up | The EU is seeking to rapidly accelerate production of clean technologies by offering tax credits and domestic subsidies to companies in a bid to catch-up with US President Biden's landmark green package. The Commission will propose a plan enabling the bloc to avoid strategic dependencies by diversifying suppliers and developing local production, according to a draft we've seen

Intransparency Reigns | The UK slipped down a global corruption ranking, with watchdog Transparency International describing public trust as "worryingly low" after a string of political and public spending scandals. In the EU, Hungary replaced Bulgaria as the lowest-ranked member state, dropping four places to 77th, according to the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index. Austria fell nine places, the most of any EU nation.

Charging Netflix | The EU is weighing a proposal to make technology companies that use the most bandwidth, like Netflix Inc. and Alphabet Inc., help pay for the next generation of internet infrastructure, according to a draft document we've seen.

Cutting LNG | Germany's government wants to curb imports of Russian liquefied natural gas, adding to efforts to reduce its reliance on the country's energy supplies, according to a document we've seen. The government has told firms it will take "appropriate measures" to exclude purchases of Russian LNG. 

In Case You Missed It

Rate Hike | A half-point hike is all but guaranteed on Thursday after ECB President Christine Lagarde and many of her colleagues doubled down on a pledge from their last gathering in December. The real news will be whether they firm up tentative plans to repeat that move in March or open the door to a smaller increase. 

Lula's a No | Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva turned down a German request to send ammunition to Ukraine as part of the international effort to help Kyiv repel the Russian invasion. "Brazil has no interest in passing on ammunition so that it will be used in the war," Lula told reporters at a press conference in Brasilia alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Russian Ban | Russia's government banned sales of its oil to buyers adhering to a price cap introduced by Western countries, according to a decree published yesterday. The decree gives Russia's customs service the right to block oil shipments in case of violations.

Grain Help | A group of EU countries urged the bloc to help alleviate the oversupply of grain as cheap imports from Ukraine flood markets in neighboring countries, cutting demand for local produce and triggering protests from farmers. Six east European nations led by Poland called for measures including compensation for farmers at a meeting of the bloc's agriculture ministers yesterday.  

Positive Spin | Comments by Turkish President Erdogan that his country may ratify Finland's bid to join NATO present a "positive sign," Finland's top envoy said, even as Erdogan had warned Sweden would receive a different response. "My understanding is that there is no fundamental obstacle to both countries becoming members," said Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto.

Taiwan Ties | The Czech Republic's incoming president, Petr Pavel, spoke with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen two days after he was elected, a clear sign the new leader plans to bolster ties in the face of mounting pressure from China. "I assured her that Taiwan and the Czech Republic share the values of freedom, democracy, and human rights," Pavel said on Twitter.

Chart of the Day

Germany's economy shrank 0.2% at the end of last year — a worse outcome than previously flagged and one that makes a recession on the back of rising energy bills more likely after all. The figures yesterday from the statistics office contrast with an estimate this month for output to have stagnated in the fourth quarter. They also mean a contraction in the period through March would still produce a recession in the euro area's largest economy. Euro-area GDP data are due later today.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 11 pm. Eurostat publishes 4Q euro-area GDP 
  • 3 p.m. Ukrainian presidential adviser Andrii Yermak speaks to European Parliament panel
  • 5:30 p.m. High Representative Borrell gives a statement ahead of his meeting with North Macedonia's foreign minister
  • 5:30 p.m. Competition chief Margrethe Vestager appears before European Parliament panel
  • First meeting of High Level Group of Experts to reflect on Cohesion Policy launched by Commissioner Elisa Ferreira

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