Thursday, December 29, 2022

Next China: Hello world

Travel bookings surge after end of quarantine

If you think people in the west went overboard on revenge travel after their Covid restrictions ended, you haven't seen anything yet.

Within half an hour of the Chinese government's announcement that travelers will no longer have to quarantine from Jan. 8 onwards, searches for overseas destinations shot up by 1,000%, hitting a three-year high, according to Trip.com. Bookings for outbound flights from mainland China jumped 254% on Tuesday from the day before, while bookings for inbound flights increased by 412%. 

Passengers go through immigration at Hong Kong airport. Photographer: PETER PARKS/AFP

Ending hotel quarantine for arrivals could be a game-changer for a reeling economy. As someone who had to do two long stretches of solitary confinement after returning to China this year from overseas — one for 14 days in Beijing and another 10-day stint in Chongqing — it's pretty brutal. Beyond the boredom and lack of exercise, I couldn't order delivery on the days my Beijing hotel served me chicken feet and pig's feet in the same meal. Even though quarantine has been whittled down to at least five days at a hotel, it's still tough to accept when your friends are partying it up in Ibiza.  

Watch: China Reopens Borders to the World (Video)

It's easy to understand why there is so much pent-up demand. After nearly three years of self-imposed isolation, China's vast population is ready to explore the world again. Even though Beijing will start issuing new passports again and reopen a border with Hong Kong next month, there are still several hurdles for travelers to overcome.

China is in the midst of a massive Covid surge that may not peak until January. Accurate numbers are hard to come by and what we know is based on disparate sources. About 18% of the population, or as many as 248 million people, may have contracted Covid in the first 20 days of December, with almost 37 million infected on a single day, according to the minutes of an internal meeting held by the National Health Commission. Airfinity, a London-based research firm, said China is likely experiencing 1 million infections every day, a number that could rise to 3.7 million in January. With the accuracy of its data questioned, the NHC said it will stop publishing daily case numbers, while the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention will only release monthly numbers from here on out. 

Concerns about Covid data transparency and the prospect of new omicron variants emerging from Chinese tourism have forced several countries to impose restrictions. Japan was one of the first to say it would require a negative Covid test upon arrival for mainland Chinese residents. The US and Italy, which found almost half of the passengers on two flights from China to Milan had the virus, have since joined. The UK, Australia and Germany haven't yet introduced any new restrictions, although they are monitoring developments closely. GISAID, a database where scientists share coronavirus sequences as a way to monitor mutations, said China's current outbreak is being caused by strains of the virus that have already circled the world

The new travel rules are unlikely to dampen attitudes toward outbound travel, especially with the week-long Lunar New Year holiday coming up. Searches related to travel packages during the break climbed 600%, according to Trip.com. Places in Asia are the most popular. The top five destinations were Singapore, with a 600% increase in bookings, followed by about 400% for South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand. Some tourists going to Macau and Hong Kong are reported to be planning to get the mRNA vaccine and stock up on hard-to-get Paxlovid.

Hong Kong also sounds like more of an appealing destination now that it will end some of its last major Covid rules, including gathering limits, vaccination checks and testing for travelers. Mask mandates are staying for now.

If anything, it's high plane fares that could keep a lid on Chinese travel. A quick glance online showed roundtrip flights from Shanghai to Japan leaving Jan. 10 start at $1,400, three times the normal price, and that's not even direct. The world's airlines are taking a cautious approach to China's reopening, reluctant to immediately change schedules and divert planes from other routes.

"I got so excited at the news and then the flight prices calmed me down," one person wrote on Weibo, China's version of Twitter. "Will wait and see instead."

While some of my Chinese friends said they are a little worried they may get quarantined upon arrival if they test positive, they still want to travel after being cooped up due to lockdowns and other draconian Covid Zero restrictions. There was a lot of sarcasm on Weibo. According to one post, "when Covid first broke out, they cut off Chinese flights; when China was strictly putting Covid under control, they accused China of isolation and called for it to open up; now that China has finally opened up, they demand PCR tests of Chinese passengers."

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