Thursday, December 22, 2022

5 things to start your day

Good morning. Sam Bankman-Fried on bail, Covid saps China's economy and bond titan Scott Minerd passes away. Here's what everyone is talking

Good morning. Sam Bankman-Fried on bail, Covid saps China's economy and bond titan Scott Minerd passes away. Here's what everyone is talking about.

Wishing you a happy holiday season. This is the last edition of the year. We will resume Jan. 3.

SBF on Bail

Sam Bankman-Fried was released on a $250 million bail package after making his first US court appearance to face fraud charges over the collapse of FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange he co-founded. The bail package includes a $250 million personal recognizance bond secured by his parents' house in California, which federal prosecutor Nicholas Roos said is one of the largest pretrial bonds in US history. Its terms require him to stay with them and submit to electronic monitoring. 

China Slump

China's soaring Covid infections are keeping people home and causing a slump in travel and economic activity, according to the latest high-frequency data. Following the recent abrupt end to Covid Zero controls, more cities have been hit by an exit wave of infections in the past week, leading to crowded hospitals and queues at funeral parlors. That's keeping people in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere from going out despite workers in some places being told to return to work even if sick.

Scott Minerd

Guggenheim Partners Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd, who was regarded as one of the kings of the bond market during its four-decade bull run, has died. He was 63. Minerd died Wednesday at his home in Rancho Santa Fe, California, after suffering a heart attack during his regular workout. Guggenheim confirmed his death in a statement.

UK Grid

The UK electricity grid faces record costs for power stations cranking up output in emergencies this year, as it grapples with balancing supply and demand in the face of Europe's energy crisis. National Grid paid £3.2 billion ($3.85 billion) between January and October in so-called balancing costs, according to data from the company's Electricity System Operator compiled by the Nuclear Industry Association. Ultimately that cost will be reimbursed by consumers, and is an increase of more than 20% over last year's total bill, with two months of figures yet to be released.

Coming Up

European equity futures edged higher despite broadly negative trading in Asia and a decline in US stocks on Thursday. Data showing gross domestic product in Spain, unemployment in Poland and consumer confidence in Italy are among the economic releases coming up today. Forafric Global, an agribusiness, and Duro Felguera, a manufacturer, are among the companies to report earnings.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours

And finally, here's what Mark is interested in this morning

The pound is ending the year with economic headwinds building, which points to a rough start for the currency in 2023, and that will revive memories of the turbulence this year. In the end, sterling didn't quite breach parity with the US dollar, but it did come very close in September, setting a record low in the process. Meanwhile, UK household incomes fell for a fourth straight quarter, leaving Britons on course for the worst period for living standards in memory as officials estimated the economy was weaker than previously thought. Industrial action is souring the mood so badly that pubs and restaurants in the City of London said sales were cut to almost half pre-pandemic levels during last week's rail strikes. That will increase pressure on the Bank of England to make an early end to rate hikes, even though inflation remains elevated. Global investors taking a holistic view of the outlook for the UK are likely to single out the pound for more weakness as a safety valve to offset the economic pain.  A breach of parity next year for cable is starting to look like the path of least resistance. 

Mark Cranfield is a Strategist for Markets Live based in Singapore

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