Sunday, November 27, 2022

5 Things to Start Your Day

Covid protests spread in China. Taiwan's ruling party suffers a resounding defeat. Canada to boost military spending in Asia. Here's what yo

Covid protests spread in China. Taiwan's ruling party suffers a resounding defeat. Canada to boost military spending in Asia. Here's what you need to know today.

Boiling Point

Protests against Covid restrictions spread across China as citizens took to the streets and university campuses, venting their anger against local officials and the Communist Party. There was heavy police presence in some areas of Shanghai, after huge crowds gathered and protesters at one location called for President Xi Jinping to step down — a level of national dissent unheard of since he took power a decade ago. Protests were also reported in Beijing, Wuhan and Xinjiang. Get the full story here, see a selection of protest videos here, and find out how demonstrators are tricking censors to vent anger on social media here.

Protest Pressure

The dollar rose and stocks are facing downward pressure as markets open to the news of growing unrest in China. The US dollar made some of its biggest early gains against the currencies of Australia and South Africa, both of which are exposed to trade with China. The offshore yuan fell about 0.5%. Equity futures for Hong Kong and Australia had already pointed toward declines even before protests worsened over the weekend. The downbeat mood contrasts with last week's, when the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes showed most officials backed slowing the pace of interest-rate hikes. The S&P 500 notched a weekly gain of 1.5%.

Crushing Blow

Chiang Kai-shek's great-grandson declared victory in the race to be mayor of Taiwan's capital, as the ruling party suffered a resounding defeat in island-wide local elections a little more than a year before a new president is chosen. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party won just five of 21 city- and county-level races on Saturday, leading President Tsai Ing-wen to quit her position as party leader. The opposition Kuomintang, which favors eventual unification with China, held onto 13 seats, gaining power in both the capital Taipei and export hub Taoyuan.

House Win

Macau's six casino operators won new licenses to continue running their businesses in the city, as a firm linked to Genting failed in its attempt to gain entry to the gaming hub. The new licenses, expected to take effect at the beginning of next year, are allowed to carry a maximum term of 10 years, according to Macau's gaming law. The decision to retain all existing operators eliminated a major uncertainty facing an industry hit by the double whammy of Covid-induced tourism drought and China's crackdown on high rollers to curb capital outflow. 

Canada Ties

Canada is boosting military spending and expanding trade ties in the Indo-Pacific region as part of a "generational" shift in foreign policy aimed at building stronger ties with Asian allies and countering China's influence. The $1.7 billion strategy includes funding for more navy patrols in the region, intelligence and cybersecurity, and increased cooperation with regional partners in the East and South China Seas. Canada will also toughen its rules around foreign investment and take other steps to defend itself from "foreign interference." Get the full story here.

What we've been reading

And finally, here's what Garfield's interested in this morning

November is proving to be a very buoyant month for assets of all stripes, with bonds and equities rallying into the teeth of a barrage of continued global central bank tightening. Bloomberg's Global Aggregate gauge of fixed-income securities has gained 5%, heading for its best month since December of 2008, while MSCI's world stocks index is up more than 6%. The key dynamic looks to be the strong potential that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace and "only" raise its benchmark by half a point to complete a record year of rate hikes at 4.25 points.

The strong gains could set up a spicy final week, given the month-end on Wednesday could motivate plenty of position squaring and rebalancing before the first of December's three major event risks lands on Friday, in non-farm payrolls. The temptation could be there for some to take profits off the table in case robust jobs and inflation numbers create the potential for surprises at the final Fed meeting of the year.

Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

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