Monday, October 31, 2022

5 Things to Start Your Day

Stars of finance arrive in Hong Kong for summit. Biden seeks higher taxes for oil companies. Bolsonaro's silence puts Brazil on edge. Here's

Stars of finance arrive in Hong Kong for summit. Biden seeks higher taxes for oil companies. Bolsonaro's silence puts Brazil on edge. Here's what you need to know today.

Flying In

Some of the biggest names on Wall Street are descending on Hong Kong in their first trip since the pandemic began, defying criticism by US lawmakers. Goldman Sachs's David Solomon, Morgan Stanley's James Gorman and Blackrock's Rob Kapito will be among 200 or so attendees at the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit, which starts Tuesday. Three top bankers have pulled out. The event, hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, is designed to show the city is back in business after years of Covid isolation. Hong Kong's economy just recorded its worst quarter in more than two years, with GDP plunging 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier.

Fed Looms

Asian stocks are set for a cautious open amid higher bond yields and investor focus on central bank decisions this week. Equity futures were higher for Hong Kong while a gauge of US-listed Chinese stocks fell. Contracts were little changed in Japan and Australia following a drop in the S&P 500. Treasury yields sold off across the curve on Monday, sending two-year US yields to around 4.5%. Expectations remain high for a jumbo rates hike from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Meanwhile short sellers made a killing betting against Chinese stocks last week. Get the full story here.

Jumping Ship

For two years, bad news has piled up for Chinese property developers. The nation's worsening credit crisis has led to defaults, failure to deliver homes on time and an unrelenting market selloff. Now a new phenomenon has emerged: Builders' founders are leaving. Longfor Group's Wu Yajun resigned as executive director and chair, sending shares tumbling, just weeks after Soho China's Pan Shiyi quit. While Wu cited health reasons, the timing has startled analysts, who see more founders heading for the exit as the crisis wears on.

'Windfall of War'

US President Joe Biden said he'd seek to impose higher taxes on oil companies that record "windfall" profits without reinvesting in production. Companies that don't show they're reinvesting are "going to pay a higher tax on their excess profits and face other restrictions," he said, blasting the industry's profits as "a windfall of war." However, his promise will be all but impossible to deliver as no such proposal is likely to pass the current Senate, evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Unless Biden's party makes unexpected gains in next week's elections, the GOP and centrist Democrats will be able to block it for the foreseeable future.

Brazil on Edge

Nearly 24 hours after his defeat in Brazil's runoff election, President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to be seen or heard from, keeping voters guessing on whether he will concede defeat to his old foe Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. By law, the government needs to organize a formal handover process right after the vote. Speculation is growing in the capital about the president's next moves and television networks have arranged cameras around different government buildings in case Bolsonaro decides to break his silence. In a tweet on Monday his oldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro thanked his father's supporters and said they wouldn't give up on Brazil.

  • Will the outcome of the US elections boost stocks or bonds? This week's MLIV Pulse survey focuses on midterms and their impact on the markets. Click here to share your views.

What we've been reading

And finally, here's what Garfield's interested in this morning

Japan's got pretty deep pockets when it comes to its foreign-exchange reserves. That's just as well, as the country is burning through them at an impressive rate just to limit the yen's slide. Given the finance ministry's revelation that it spent a record 6.3 trillion yen ($42.4 billion) last month intervening to prop up its currency, it's possible October saw reserves drain by even more than September's record $51.5 billion.

Authorities in Tokyo may soon need to deploy more of those reserves — which have dropped a long way from the record $1.32 trillion reached just over two years ago. Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting could set us up for more yen intervention should US policymakers trash hopes for a policy pivot. The question of how long Japan can sustain its battle to support the yen would become more pointed then, especially if concerns grow that the country might have to start selling Treasuries to do so and set off fresh spikes in US yields.

Garfield Reynolds is Chief Rates Correspondent for Bloomberg News in Asia, based in Sydney.

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