Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Why Pelosi is visiting Taiwan

Pelosi's visit comes at a very delicate time in ties.

When a plane carrying a very senior US politician touches down in Taiwan as soon as tonight, a key question will remain — why now?

Nancy Pelosi has been House Speaker (second in the line of succession to the presidency) across two stints starting in 2007, and in Congress for 35 years. So why pick this moment to visit the democratically ruled island that China claims as its territory and has threatened to take by force?

Key reading:

Her trip, still unconfirmed publicly but which officials say includes a potential meeting tomorrow with President Tsai Ing-wen, has already caused ructions in US-China relations. It overshadowed a call last week between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

It comes at a very delicate time in ties, with tensions soaring over everything from trade to human rights and, more recently, China's refusal to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

It puts both Biden and Xi in a bind. The White House is clearly uneasy about the trip, but Biden has to be careful not to be seen to be ordering her to cancel it. China has been so vocal in its displeasure, warning of potential military or economic retaliation (or both), that Xi might have to do something simply to avoid being seen as weak.

Why then might Pelosi push on?

She too has her reputation at stake in not backing down. She has for decades been a strong critic of China over human rights, most famously raising a banner in Tiananmen Square in 1991.

And with the US midterm elections coming and Democrats sliding in polls, she is at a high risk of losing her role. Xi, meantime, is likely to soon be endorsed for another term.

As someone watching Xi's increasingly authoritarian tilt, for Pelosi this might be now or never — no matter the fallout. 

A television image of Pelosi holding the banner with other congressional members in September 1991. Source: AP

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Global Headlines

US strike | Biden said a US drone killed the leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Afghanistan over the weekend, describing him as a key planner of the 9/11 attacks. He said the strike showed Washington could reach its enemies in the country even after its withdrawal almost a year ago.

Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahiri pictured in this still image from video aired by Al-Jazeera. Source: Al-Jazeera 

Trade imbalance | The Kremlin is leaning toward rejecting a prisoner swap with the US unless it gets two Russians in return for the two Americans Washington wants, sources say. The US has called on Russia to free professional basketball player Brittney Griner and former US Marine Paul Whelan in return for convicted arms dealer Viktor Bout. Moscow views the deal as unequal.

  • US efforts to weaken Russia's grip on global atomic power markets in punishment for its war in Ukraine are foundering ahead of a key nuclear summit.

Savings target | Liz Truss said she'd slash "waste" in the UK's civil service and align the pay of public-sector workers to local living costs to save $13.5 billion if she becomes prime minister. The pledges aim to shore up her support on the right of the ruling Conservative Party as members receive ballot papers in her contest with Rishi Sunak to succeed Boris Johnson.

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Just guidance | China's top leaders told government officials last week that this year's economic growth target of "around 5.5%" should serve as guidance rather than a hard target and acknowledged that the chances of meeting it were slim, sources say. The meetings came in the same week as a key gathering of the Politburo, the Communist Party's top decision-making body, to discuss the economy.

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Reversing course | President Nicolas Maduro plans to sell slices of government stakes in state-owned companies through the stock exchange in a bid to resuscitate Venezuela's economy. The move to allow more free-market enterprise, while modest in scope, marks a sharp turnaround from his socialist policies.

Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with David Westin weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here or check out prior episodes and guest clips here.

News to Note

  • Imran Khan's political party received illegal foreign funding, Pakistan's election commission ruled, a decision that will likely increase political uncertainty in the country.
  • A Gates Foundation-backed think tank is seeking $50 billion in support to help African nations with distressed debt to re-enter capital markets and to protect against future defaults.
  • Republicans are using an obscure rule named for the late Robert Byrd, who was the US Senate's longest-serving member, to challenge provisions of the Democrats' surprise tax, health and climate deal.
  • South African President Cyril Ramaphosa urged members of the public to help find armed assailants who gang-raped eight women on the set of a music video near Johannesburg last week.

And finally ... After a decade when London was the venue of choice for rich Russians fighting legal cases, the city's law firms are agonizing over whether it's just too risky to work for them in the wake of President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. One defamation case brought by Yevgeny Prigozhin — known as "Putin's chef" for his Kremlin links — was thrown out in May by a London court when his lawyers said they no longer wanted to represent him.

Prigozhin shows Putin his school lunch factory outside St. Petersburg in 2010. Photographer: Alexey Druzhinin/AFP/Getty Images

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