Tuesday, July 5, 2022

Supply Lines: Rolling back tariffs

After four years of the US-China trade war, President Joe Biden may announce an easing of some tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars wo

After four years of the US-China trade war, President Joe Biden may announce an easing of some tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods as soon as this week.

According to Bloomberg's Jenny Leonard and Eric Martin, Biden hasn't made a final decision yet and the timing could slip, but such a rollback would mark his first major policy step on trade between the world's two biggest economic powers. (Click here for their full story.)

As inflation increases in the US and the economy shows signs of cooling, expectations are rising that the Biden administration will reduce or remove some of the import taxes imposed by former President Donald Trump to help lower the costs of everyday merchandise.

Vice Premier Liu He of China and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a video call Tuesday morning Beijing time, according to a statement from China's Ministry of Commerce. (Read more on those talks here.)

According to China, the two sides discussed economic policy and stabilizing global supply chains, agreeing that it's significant for the US and China to strengthen communication and coordination in those areas. The talks were pragmatic and constructive, according to the statement.

The US called the talks "candid and substantive" but the official readout of the meeting didn't mention tariffs or sanctions. However, it did say that Yellen "frankly raised issues of concern including the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine on the global economy and unfair, non-market" economic practices by China.

In a research note, Barclays said any reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods will have only a modest impact on US inflation and the yuan.

Economic Impact

According to a group in Washington called Americans for Free Trade, whose members include the National Retail Federation and the US-China Business Council, the US's trade war with China has cost Americans $129 billion in the form of Section 301 tariffs paid between mid-2018 and April this year.

The group's data showed:

  • The average monthly amount of 301 tariffs paid under Biden — $3.8 billion — is 67% higher than the average paid during Trump's tenure
  • About 55% of all Section 301 tariffs have been paid under Trump, with the rest paid under Biden

For More

Brendan Murray in London

Charted Territory

Into the Red | Germany reported its first monthly trade deficit in three decades after exports unexpectedly fell in May. The shortfall of 1 billion euros was the first since 1991. Shipments abroad declined 0.5%, compared with economists' expectations for an increase of 0.7%. At the same time imports rose 2.7%, much more than anticipated. (Read more here.)

Today's Must Reads

  • Ground zero | China reported more Covid-19 infections in its current epicenter, putting pressure on authorities to tame the outbreak before it spills over into some of the country's most economically important areas. 
  • Weak summer sales | Automakers in the UK had their worst June sales in decades as ongoing components shortages kept them from meeting demand, with new-car registrations declining to the lowest level for the month since 1996.
  • Production delays | Volvo warned that Covid lockdowns in China could hamper delivery of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles this quarter. Meanwhile, Airbus delivered about 55 jets in June, leaving the company only two-fifths of the way toward its 2022 goal after the first half.
  • Contract talks | The union representing about 22,000 West Coast dockworkers and their employers will continue negotiations for a new labor contract past the July 1 expiration of their current pact and said the ports will keep functioning.
  • Digging it | Australia's minerals exports are set to reach unseen heights for a second year, as a global crunch lifts the value of the nation's coal and natural gas. 
  • Storm tragedy | Survival chances are slim for 27 missing crew members from a Chinese vessel that sunk in the South China Sea in a storm, according to Hong Kong authorities. In its aftermath, Typhoon Chaba created a bottleneck of ships as supply chains try to recover from the effects of China's lockdowns earlier this year.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Weaker outlook | The war in Ukraine, Covid Zero in China and accelerated Fed tightening are reshaping the outlook for the global economy, according to Bloomberg Economics' latest forecasts.
  • Watching trailers | The strong contractual truckload market looks unfazed by spot weakness, as ATA's May data results point to robust revenue growth amid firm contract rates and incremental load growth, Bloomberg Intelligence says.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • Click  HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.
  • Click VRUS on the terminal for news and data on the coronavirus and here for maps and charts.

Like Supply Lines?

Don't keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can sign up here. We also publish the New Economy Daily, a briefing on the latest in global economics.

For even more: Follow @economics on Twitter and subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters.

How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. Let our trade tsar know.

No comments:

Post a Comment

The Training You Requested Is Starting...

   Hey Trader,  Thanks for registering to view our free training video, How To Systematically Double Your A...