Friday, July 8, 2022

Next Africa: Presidential fallout

Welcome to Next Africa, a weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.Just when Kenya needs leadership, its

Welcome to Next Africa, a weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed.

Just when Kenya needs leadership, its rulers are divided.

As prices surge, debt mounts and parts of the country suffer the worst drought in 40 years, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, are engaged in a bitter war of words ahead of elections.

William Ruto.

That's raising the specter of a repeat of violence that swept the country in previous elections. The worst was in 2007-08 when more than 1,000 people died in post-election fighting. At the time, Kenyatta was supporting Mwai Kibaki while Ruto was backing Raila Odinga.

Kenyatta and Ruto allied to keep Odinga out of office in 2013 and 2017, but have now fallen out badly and fault each other publicly. The president has accused his deputy of absconding from work, an allegation Ruto denied and said his boss sidelined him by giving away his duties.

Kenyatta, who can't run again, is backing Odinga against Ruto in the Aug. 9 presidential race despite an earlier expectation that he would do the opposite. It demonstrates just how fickle political loyalties are in Kenya, and has left the nation on a knife edge.

Raila Odinga.

The weekly average of incidents of political violence over the past month in Kenya increased by 61% from last year, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.

"Bitterness about income inequality and Kenya's deteriorating economy runs deep, potentially making it easier to mobilize frustrated crowds," International Crisis Group said in a report last month. There is a risk "that unemployed youth could be recruited into gangs to commit violence during electioneering."

Neither Kenyatta nor Ruto have done much to calm tensions. That doesn't augur well.

— By David Herbling & Antony Sguazzin

News & Opinion

Eskom Deal | South African labor groups agreed to a 7% wage increase offered by the state-owned power utility, ending an impasse that triggered illegal protests. Eskom workers aren't allowed to strike because the provision of electricity is considered an essential service. While labor groups on June 28 called for their members to report for duty, they stayed away from work at some plants, forcing the utility to double power cuts.

Fuel Crisis | Fuel shortages in Ethiopia worsened, with motorists in the capital Addis Ababa waiting as long as eight hours to refill. In South Africa, protesters in the northeast blocked roads including one linking the country to Mozambique because of pump prices rising to a record. Meanwhile, bus drivers in Mozambican capital Maputo agreed to end a strike after authorities pledged to cushion the impact of record fuel prices by subsidizing fares.

Gas station in Addis Ababa on June 23.

Fiscal Conundrum | Ghana may seek as much as $1.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund to shore up its finances and win back access to the global capital markets. The government reversed a policy decision not to seek assistance from the IMF. Investors were concerned Ghana may not be able to refinance foreign debt after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine sent borrowing costs soaring.

Shocking Loss | OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo, an oil industry veteran who steered the group through the creation of the OPEC+ alliance, died in his native Nigeria. Barkindo, 63, was in the final weeks of his six-year tenure as the top diplomat at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, where he headed its Vienna-based secretariat. In Japan, ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 67, died after he was shot in a shocking attack during a campaign event.

Mohammad Barkindo.

Startups Update | Flutterwave denied reports of financial impropriety after Kenya's High Court froze the company's bank accounts holding more than $40 million. Meanwhile, Zapper is considering options to raise capital, including a stake sale, that could value the South African fintech at nearly $1 billion. 

Crypto Plan | The Central African Republic, which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in April, is poised to roll out its own digital currency as part of a plan to develop its financial industry. The nation's treasury will hold 20% of the Sango Coin. Stakeholders, including the central bank, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, have raised concern about the CAR's cryptocurrency plan.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • Uganda's central bank held a special monetary policy meeting and raised the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 8.5%, the highest in more than two years.
  • Sierra Leone's central bank raised its key lending rate by 100 basis points to 16% to curb inflation. At least nine African central banks have hiked by a full percentage point or more in one go since the start of the year.
  • The Nigerian naira fell to a record of 427.68 per dollar 
  • Mauritius's consumer prices rose 9.6% in June from a year earlier, compared with a 10.7% increase in May. The nation's gross reserves rose to $7.6 billion in June from $7.1 billion in May.

Coming Up

  • July 11 Tanzania inflation for June
  • July 12 South Africa manufacturing production for May
  • July 13 South Africa retail sales for May, Ghana inflation for June and mid-term budget review
  • July 14 South Africa mining production for May, Namibia inflation for June, Kenya monthly fuel-price review
  • July 15 Nigeria and Botswana inflation releases for June

Last Word

Mozambique received 19 white rhinos from South Africa, the first to roam a key national park in more than four decades after the species were wiped out by poachers. The relocation to Zinave National Park, part of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park that links South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, is the longest road transfer of rhinos ever done, according to the Peace Parks Foundation. To date, the park has introduced 2,400 game animals after numbers were decimated by a 15-year civil war. The return of rhinos is likely to boost the stature of the 1,544 square miles park as a sought-after tourism destination.  More than 8,000 black and white rhinos -- a third of the global population -- have been lost to poaching in southern Africa. They are targeted for their horns, which are believed to have medicinal properties in east Asia. Last year, Zimbabwe reintroduced rhino at its Gonarezhou National Park for the first time in three decades.

White rhinos with their horns removed as an anti-poaching measure in South Africa.

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