Tuesday, July 5, 2022

Europe is low on energy

Plus: What if there's no recession?

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Today's Agenda

That Which We Don't Consume the Best Energy Is

It's funny to stop and think about the fact that, a little more than two years ago, oil prices were negative. Some guy with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate was actually willing to pay another guy $40 to take the oil off his hands, like a Craigslist seller trying to pawn off their poorly assembled Wayfair furniture. Oil, like furniture, is a pain to store: Sometimes there's simply nowhere to put it.

My, how the tables have turned. Oil and other fuel prices have since gone through the roof, and Europe is stocking up on mittens to make it through the winter. Though Italy is currently swarmed with bellini-sipping, gingham-clad TikTok girlies tossing euros in the Trevi Fountain, no amount of tourism will pull the continent out of its energy nightmare. Recession is on the tip of everyone's tongue, Lionel Laurent writes, and staffing shortages and strikes aren't helping.

Vladimir Putin's merciless energy blackmail is responsible for much of this misery, but Javier Blas has a wild idea that just might counter it: What if we paid consumers not to consume electricity? "The best energy is that which we don't consume," he writes like some sort of electrified Yoda.

Companies could easily shut down their paper shredders and overhead lights at night and on the weekends. Individuals have fewer easy options, most of which involve embracing a Laura Ingalls Wilder lifestyle of shorter showers, air-dried laundry and train travel. One solution could be a cash-for clunkers program like America's version for cars (RIP to your mom's certified pre-owned Oldsmobile Cutlass), targeting ancient AC units, washing machines, fridges and other juice-guzzling appliances.

In Germany, Andreas Kluth notes the Ukraine war has revived the classic debate of whether there should be speed limits (gasp!) on the autobahn: "Driving faster requires a lot more fuel. In an era of climate change, that counts against speeding. In a time of war, it does so twice over," he writes.

Oil producers, meanwhile, are supplying the world with more empty promises than energy, warns Julian Lee:

When the April 2020 negative-oil fiasco was in full swing, OPEC+ agreed to slash production by millions of barrels a day. The group claims it has restored all the oil it removed from the market, but this is what energy experts call "not true," Julian writes. OPEC+ was 2.6 million barrels a day short of its goal in May. In a sense, oil has gone negative again, but not in a good way.

Bonus Ukraine Reading: The cost of rebuilding Ukraine will total more than $1 trillion. Who will foot the bill? — Bloomberg's editorial board

2022 Economic Halftime, Brought to You By Anchovies

If it looks like a recession, acts like a recession and talks like a recession, is it a recession? Ha ha, nope! Really fooled you on that one.

"If we get two quarters of negative GDP, and the NBER doesn't declare a recession (which is highly possible, since that's not they criteria they use) people are going to lose their minds," Joe Weisenthal tweeted this morning. To which Kyla Scanlon replied: "ppl r already doing that." She's right! Americans are Googling "recession" at twice the rate they were in 2008, back when Lehman was collapsing and your great Aunt Martha lost her job selling massage chairs because Sharper Image went bankrupt:

Despite this, the economy is actually doing … fine? I guess? The job market is still strong, and Paul J. Davies is optimistic, writing households "are in pretty good shape and showing few signs of financial strain." Most of our wallets are still overflowing with enough Covid cash to cushion the blow.

If 2022 is one big game of economic football, then we're at halftime, and the final score is still uncertain. Though stocks have been falling like dead anchovies in San FranciscoMohamed El-Erian sees silver linings in the carnage; for one thing, genuine value is being restored in the market.

On the other hand, Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame predicts we'll see a collapse in corporate earnings in the second half of the year, and Jonathan Levin agrees, writing "there are many reasons to believe there's more pain ahead."

Bonus Economic Reading: The market's new recession narrative spells an unhappy ending for stocks. — John Authers

Telltale Charts

Hard seltzer summer is in full swing. Chances are, you missed this Ben Schott column about the new era of day-drinking because you were out on a day-drinking bender yourself. As the kids like to say, "Ain't no laws when you're drinking Claws!" That is, unless you're this woman.

Although income levels for Pacific island nations are on par with sub-Saharan Africa, their governments have great potential political power, David Fickling writes. As climate pressures mount, bigger nations would be wise to lend them a hand.

Further Reading

Another day, another data breach. This time: one billion Chinese files from a police database.  — Tim Culpan

Trying to get tickets to Wimbledon is a tournament in itself. — Therese Raphael

 A 6,092 square-foot apartment sold for $27 million in the Beverly Hills of Singapore. Froth, much?  — Andy Mukherjee

Before tampons, women used peat moss.  — Stephen Mihm

As the US bear market enters its seventh month, private equity could be its next victim— Nir Kaissar

Indonesia's attempt to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war looks like theatrics, but could work.  — Clara Ferreira Marques

China revised its law on sports. Is the NBA willing to play Beijing's game? — Adam Minter

ICYMI

Boris Johnson loyalists are packing their bags.

What we know about the victims of the Highland Park shooting.

Work from home is now a legal right in the Netherlands.

James Stavridis has a plan for the great grain escape of 2022.

Kickers

Your brain on Barbie.

Gentleminions are despicable.

Scientists cloned a mouse using freeze-dried skin cells.

You could be the proud owner of a 76 million-year-old dinosaur skeleton.

RadioShack's Twitter account has taken an … odd turn.

Source: @hellicity_merriman on Instagram
Source: @hellicity_merriman on Instagram

Notes:  Please send dinosaur skeletons and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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