Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Brussels Edition: Gathering intelligence

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Growing 21st century ris

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Growing 21st century risks — particularly from Russia and China — mean that now is the time to come up with a fully fledged intelligence body across the EU, according to a draft of a report commissioned by President Ursula von der Leyen. The service — not unlike the FBI in the US — would gather intelligence about threats targeting the bloc and counter espionage against its key institutions, we've been told. While the idea may make sense in a world rife with global threats, the bloc's 27 member states may not feel the same way, given national reservations about sharing classified information with other countries and EU institutions. The report, which may still be tweaked, is expected to be released as early as next week.

John Ainger

What's Happening

Almost Done | The EU will end up providing around $20 billion toward a broad G-7-led loan program for Ukraine, now that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Washington is nearly ready to step up with a similar amount. The aim is to lock in funding for Ukraine as its allies brace for a possible victory by Donald Trump.

Graft Scandal | Meanwhile Ukraine's top prosecutor submitted his resignation, citing "shameful cases of abuse" inside his agency that included officials obtaining fake disability statuses to tap benefits. The nation has been under pressure to combat endemic corruption even as it fights to repel Russia's invasion.

Albanian Hotspot | Von der Leyen kicks off a four-day tour of the Western Balkans by meeting Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama today. It comes at a delicate time — Italian premier Giorgia Meloni's government is pushing through new legislation to salvage its plan to divert asylum seekers to the country.

Lagarde's Invitation | Trump should visit Frankfurt to see just how hard ECB policymakers work, President Christine Lagarde told us in a riposte to the Republican candidate's assertion that setting interest rates was easy. That said, the "direction of travel is clear" for the ECB, she said, with disinflation set to allow for continued monetary easing.

Property Gamble | There's a niche corner of dealmaking that'squietly making inroads in the battered market for commercial real estate, particularly in Europe. Asset managers we interviewed spoke of doubling their clients' money in just a few years in what's become an "irresistible" model. Here's the secret.

Around Europe

Reality Check | The IMF is painting a less rosy picture for the euro area next year, downgrading the growth outlook to 1.2%. That's 0.3 percentage points lower than it was just three months ago. The outlook dimmed in part due to persistent manufacturing weakness in Germany and Italy. The institution also said that the risks from wars to trade protectionism were increasing.

Russian Sabotage | Poland ordered the closure of Russia's consulate in the western city of Poznan over an alleged sabotage attempt by the Kremlin. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that prosecutors have presented strong evidence of Russian intelligence's involvement in a hybrid war. Poland isn't the only country in Moscow's crosshairs.

Nest Egg | Ireland's government pumped just over €4 billion into its new sovereign wealth fund, which it aims to grow to more than €100 billion as part of a plan to better manage its finances. The nation is in the enviable position of having the money to spare thanks to huge corporate income tax receipts, which has put the budget on track for a surplus this year.

Wind Crisis | At the COP28 climate talks in Dubai last year, leaders from more than 130 nations agreed to triple renewable power capacity by the end of the decade. While the target remains achievable, current rates of clean power deployment aren't sufficient, and one sector in particular is to blame. 

Chart of the Day

China exported more than 60,000 electric vehicles to the EU in September, with shipments jumping to the second-highest level on record ahead of additional tariffs expected to take effect at the end of this month. Firms from Asia's biggest economy shipped 60,517 EVs to the bloc's 27 member states, up 61% from last year, according to customs data. The previous peak of 67,455 vehicles was in October 2023, when the European Commission announced that it was launching an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese-made EVs.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 1:30 p.m. NATO chief Mark Rutte speaks to troops in Estonia
  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets Prime Minister Edi Rama in Tirana, Albania
  • European Parliament debates possible changes to EU migration and asylum rules

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