Sunday, July 3, 2022

Brussels Edition: Rebuilding Ukraine

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Ukraine will present a b

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Ukraine will present a blueprint today for how it will rebuild following Russia's invasion that destroyed cities, displaced millions and devastated its economy. The plan, which will be unveiled at a two-day conference in the Swiss city of Lugano, includes investments in infrastructure, climate and digital. Separately, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will present a platform to coordinate EU donations to mobilize what could amount to more than 500 billion euros. The Commission is looking at various ways to raise those funds including grants and loans, as well as joint borrowing, similar to the EU's pandemic recovery fund. But with the war continuing, the plan is tricky. Yesterday, Russia said it captured the key city of Lysychansk, which would put it closer to its goal of controlling the entire Donbas region. And in the EU, leaders are bracing for more cuts to gas supplies, which could wreak havoc on their own economies.

— Jillian Deutsch and Jorge Valero

What's Happening

Russian Gold | The EU is working on new sanctions to target Russian gold, we've been told, matching a move by the G-7 nations aimed at further choking off Moscow's revenue sources. Industry analysts say a ban would be largely symbolic because penalties have effectively already closed off European and US markets.

Disinformation Campaign | Russian diplomats have gone on a media offensive in recent months to push the narrative that sanctions, rather than Russian blockades, are causing shortages of grains and fertilizer in Africa. EU and UK officials who've recently met their African counterparts at recent meetings expressed concern that the Russian message is gaining traction.

Energy Bailouts | Ballooning energy bills and struggling utilities have made governments realize they can't leave energy security solely to markets. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz signaled that tools developed during the pandemic could be used to bail out Uniper, France is considering nationalizing Electricite de France, while the UK has brought gas and electricity provider Bulb Energy under its control.

Rate Hike | The ECB's attempt to engineer its first interest-rate hike since 2011 without causing the euro to splinter is about to take on new momentum. Officials, who have seen June's record inflation reading, will convene Wednesday for the final scheduled opportunity to prepare for their two-day meeting starting July 20. Policy makers also are trying to keep markets in check. Here's what you need to know about the central bank's two-pronged strategy.

In Case You Missed It

Brexit Anger | Germany made a rare public statement admonishing the British government for plans to break the Brexit deal agreed two years ago. "There is no legal or political justification for unilaterally breaking an international agreement entered into only two years ago," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney wrote over the weekend.

Science Deals | The UK is rattling off a series of international science agreements with a message to the EU: if you don't want our money, we'll do deals elsewhere. The latest is a memorandum of understanding with New Zealand aimed at easing access to the Pacific nation's quantum and agricultural technology. 

Accession Talks | North Macedonia's government said it's beginning consultations to find support for a proposal seeking to unlock the country's path to EU accession. Bulgaria, which wants guarantees for the rights of its nationals in North Macedonia, approved last week a mechanism that, under certain conditions, will allow the government to lift its veto over the enlargement negotiations. 

Nuclear Deal | European-brokered efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal are likely to resume following US President Joe Biden's visit to the region this month. That's after an intense round of talks in Doha failed to overcome differences, we've been told. 

Chart of the Day

For the first time, the US is supplying more natural gas to Europe than Russia sends by pipelines, according to new data. Europe is seeking alternatives such as US liquefied natural gas after Russia's Gazprom slashed shipments through Nord Stream, its biggest pipeline to Europe, and cut off shipments to countries that didn't comply with new payment terms. "The drop in Russian supply calls for efforts to reduce EU demand to prepare for a tough winter," the head of the International Energy Agency tweeted.

Today's Agenda

All times in CET.

  • 10:30 a.m. Commissioner Kadri Simson participates in "Renewables to power post-war Ukraine" event
  • 11:20 a.m. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks at a ceremony naming General Christopher Cavoli the new head of Allied Command Operations
  • Commission President Von der Leyen presents at Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, Switzerland 
  • Commissioner Thierry Breton in Paris to meet French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire
  • Competition chief Margrethe Vestager participates in European Parliament plenary votes on key digital files

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