Friday, July 8, 2022

Abe’s lasting impact

Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is likely to sweep the upper house election on Sunday.

It's hard to overstate the shock in Japan at the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Of the many questions, one is how this will change life for everyday citizens.

Unlike the US, where mass shootings are commonplace, Japan already has some of the toughest gun laws in the world. While civilians are able to obtain weapons following extensive background checks and licensing requirements, reports said the shooter — a former military man whose motives remain unclear — used a homemade shotgun.

Key reading:

It's likely that Japan will see more security at political events like the one Abe was speaking at when he was shot, a shift in a nation known as one of the safest in the world. Still, the rarity of incidents like today's show the extent to which Japan's laws are largely working.

The murder will almost certainly help Abe's Liberal Democratic Party sweep the upper house in Sunday's voting. Ruling party officials have vowed to press ahead with the election with stepped-up security, calling the shooting an attack on democracy.

That will likely consolidate the position of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who took power last October and has backed "Abenomics" policies, including monetary easing by the central bank.

Even after leaving office, Abe remained an advocate of boosting defense spending and changing Japan's pacifist constitution in light of new threats from China, North Korea and Russia. He had also warned against the dangers of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, an issue that has gained traction among the public.

It's unclear if Kishida will do much on that front, even as he has taken a bolder stance against China in recent months.

Yet as geopolitical tensions rise in Asia, Abe's views on the military will have a lasting impact on Japan's political discourse for years to come. 

Abe inspects an honor guard at the Ministry of Defense in 2019.  Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images 

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Global Headlines

Clinging on | The UK Conservatives are urgently drawing up plans for an accelerated contest to choose Boris Johnson's successor as party leader —- and so prime minister — by the end of the summer. That's to avoid indulging Johnson with an extended three-month swansong in Downing Street after a wave of cabinet and MP resignations forced him to stand down against his will.

Diplomatic blitz | China is trying to counter Washington's accusations that Beijing is undermining security in Asia, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi mounting a diplomatic blitz just as his US counterpart takes part in Group of 20 meetings in Bali. His 11-day trip is part of China's push to offer an alternative to the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and assuage fears that China could mirror Russia and take military action to solve disputes such as its claims on Taiwan.

  • President Joe Biden will discuss possible reductions in US tariffs on Chinese goods with advisers today, according to people familiar with the matter.

A quarter-trillion dollar pile of distressed debt is threatening to drag the developing world into a historic cascade of defaults. Sri Lanka was the first nation to stop paying its foreign bondholders this year followed by sanctions-hit Russia in June. Now, focus is turning to nations including El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan.

Tense G-20 | The US is trying to forge agreements with like-minded nations over Ukraine on the sidelines of the G-20 in a signal that broader consensus will be difficult with both Russia and China in attendance. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is using the event to stress that Washington can't conduct business-as-usual with Moscow, and to argue that global problems including the food and energy crisis are Russia's fault.

  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that Moscow would try to use the gathering for its own propaganda purposes, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and China's Wang had a meeting where they pledged mutual solidarity.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Abortion fight | A rule in Florida's constitution has given abortion-rights advocates an argument to keep the procedure legal there, highlighting the tactics attorneys are pursuing in the more than two dozen states considered hostile to reproductive choice. Following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, activists are eyeing provisions in state constitutions in their fight to keep abortions legal.

Explainers you can use

Reality check | The Philippines' newly installed president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is finding that his campaign pledges of a building binge, more jobs, cheaper food and tax breaks are running into the nation's tight funding constraints. The first signals from his new administration are that populism will have to wait.

Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with David Westin weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here or check out prior episodes and guest clips here.

News to Note

  • Police arrested a man who allegedly threw a small explosive at a rally held in Rio de Janeiro by Brazil's presidential front-runner, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. No injuries were reported.
  • The French Riviera is looking slightly different this summer: The Russian superyachts that can usually be spotted gliding across its sparkling blue waters are nowhere to be seen.
  • Less than two days after Beijing announced it would roll out China's first ever vaccine mandate, authorities withdrew the policy in a rare concession to criticism from residents.
  • Texas Governor Greg Abbott authorized National Guard troops and state police to apprehend migrants who illegally cross from Mexico and return them to the border.

Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which country in Europe declared a state of emergency in five northern and central regions gripped by drought and a severe heat wave. Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... A military recruitment plan in India is turning the spotlight on an unemployment crisis plaguing the $3.2 trillion economy. The new policy looks to enlist young men as soldiers on four-year contracts without pensions, replacing the current 15-year service that entails full retirement benefits. Vrishti Beniwal and Bibhudatta Pradhan report on the furious backlash from many who pin their hopes on the army for a secure future. 

A train set ablaze during a protest against India's new army recruitment plan at Danapur Railway Station on June 17.​​​​​ Photographer: Santosh Kumar/Hindustan Times/Getty Images

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