Tuesday, July 5, 2022

5 things to start your day

Boris Johnson digs in.

Good morning. Boris Johnson clings on to his job, US wants to talk candidly with China, France weighs taxing giants, and relations between Italy and Turkey seem to be on the mend. Here's what people are talking about.

Digging In

Boris Johnson is digging in as UK prime minister, after the resignation of two of the most senior members of his government. He appointed Nadhim Zahawi as his new Chancellor of the Exchequer, replacing Rishi Sunak, while Steve Barclay takes Sajid Javid's former role as health secretary. They're part of Johnson's fight back, but he's by no means out of the woods, with rebel Conservatives still seeking ways to oust him. Meanwhile, Zahawi's first order of business could be a long-awaited joint speech with Johnson on how the government plans to deliver on its pledge to fix low productivity and create a high wage-low tax economy.

Let's Be Candid

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will have a candid discussion about the war in Ukraine with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during a summit in Indonesia, a top official said. Blinken's priority will be to emphasize the US commitment to "intense diplomacy" with Beijing and to "manage responsibly the intense competition" between the two countries, said Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the two diplomats would "exchange views on current China-US relations and major international and regional issues."

Taxing Superprofits

French President Emmanuel Macron is under increasing pressure to introduce a windfall tax on oil, gas and transport giants to fund his bill aimed at protecting consumers' purchasing power. The left-wing alliance that represents the second-biggest group of parties in the National Assembly on Tuesday proposed a temporary 25% tax on what it calls the "superprofits" of companies, such as TotalEnergies and Engie. Macron has previously ruled out increasing corporate taxes, but calls to change course are growing louder.

Getting Along

Italian Premier Mario Draghi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said they are both working to achieve peace in Ukraine, putting behind them a diplomatic incident that had strained relations. The two countries signed nine cooperation deals and the two leaders also discussed the Samp/t air defense system. The meeting marks the thawing of diplomatic relations after Draghi said in April 2021 that Erdogan was among the category of "dictators" that European leaders have to work with.

Coming Up…

European stocks may trade lower as Asian equities dipped and US futures wavered on lingering fears across financial markets of an economic downturn, while oil struggled to float above $100 per barrel. Spain industrial output and Germany factory orders are among data scheduled to be announced. Earnings include CropEnergies and Redde Northgate.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

And finally, here's what Cormac is interested in this morning

The euro is hurtling toward parity with the dollar, yet traders seem strangely nonplussed about the move. Europe's common currency fell to a 20-year low against the greenback Tuesday as the growing energy crisis threatens to push the region into recession. Speculative futures positioning suggests hedge funds failed to anticipate the move — or at least felt uncomfortable betting on it — with net wagers basically flat, according to the latest data from the CFTC.

Expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes likely undermined euro bears' confidence, though tightening bets are being pulled back. There is now a 60% chance the euro hits parity versus the dollar by year-end, up from 46% on Monday, according to Bloomberg's options-pricing model. The deeper the energy crisis gets — with natural gas prices the key metric to focus on, not crude oil — the higher that probability will grow. That could coax the fast money funds to fire up some bets against the currency, suggesting parity won't be the last stop for the under-pressure euro.

Cormac Mullen is a Deputy Managing Editor in the Markets team for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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