Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Limits of US reach

Joe Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan was a key moment of retreat.

You're more likely to spot a Russian oligarch's yacht in Turkey or Israel than the south of France these days.

International penalties imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine mean that many of the luxury resorts of the Mediterranean or Caribbean are taboo for sanctioned individuals, and their assets.

But there are still safe havens for those looking to escape the net — a reality that shows the limits of US reach, and the consequences of American retrenchment.

Key reading:

Donald Trump made a virtue of disengaging from parts of the world he saw as having little economic value to America. Joe Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan was a key moment of retreat.

US allies have taken note, and some countries are maintaining ties with Russia as a result. Turkey, a NATO member, is blocking bids by Sweden and Finland to join the military alliance. Israel rankles at US efforts to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal. The United Arab Emirates declined to join those at the United Nations condemning Russia's invasion.

More politically damaging for Biden, the UAE is part of the OPEC cartel that has so far refused to raise crude output to help bring down prices at the pump.

US disengagement can be seen in Africa, while in Asia it's involved in a tussle for influence with China. In Latin America, Colombia looks set to elect a president who may reinstate ties with Venezuela over Washington's head.

To be sure, Japan and South Korea have imposed their own penalties on Russia. But that can't hide the fact that swathes of the world are not inclined to follow the US lead.

True, Biden is flooding Ukraine with US military and other aid that dwarfs European contributions. Even so, the war still risks demonstrating that the US no longer holds the global sway it once did.  

Roman Abramovich's yacht Eclipse moored in Marmaris, Turkey, on March 22. Photographer: Fatih Cetin/AFP/Getty Images

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Global Headlines

War chest | Sanctions imposed by the US and its allies against Russia were designed, in Biden's words, to deal a "powerful blow to Putin's war machine." But as the war in Ukraine approaches its 100th day, Moscow is receiving a flood of cash that could average $800 million a day this year — and that's just from oil and gas.

  • European Union ambassadors are set to approve a sixth package of sanctions on Moscow, banning most Russian oil imports by year-end and restricting its ability to ship crude to countries worldwide.
  • The OPEC+ alliance is discussing removing Russia from the monthly supply quota system, the Wall Street Journal reported, a move that would give other members scope to pump more to stem oil prices that topped $120 a barrel this week.

Gas halt | Russia is stepping up its use of energy as a weapon in Europe by cutting off gas to more buyers. Gazprom halted pipeline shipments to the Netherlands and Denmark this week, and surprised markets by also stopping a small contract supplying Germany.

  • Danes head to the polls today to vote on joining the EU's defense pact, pushed closer to the bloc by Russia's actions in Ukraine.

China's jobless rate among 16- to 24-year-olds has hit a record 18.2%, three times the national urban unemployment level and well above the 7.9% rate for the same cohort in the US. Fears are growing that joblessness could surpass the peak in 2020 when the coronavirus first began spreading.

Data fudge | China expelled a former top official of eastern Jiangsu from the Communist Party with a rare accusation of fabricating economic data. Zhang Jinghua, once deputy party chief of of the province, was found to have "faked economic figures for personal promotion and meddled in market activities in violation of relevant rules." Statistics authorities have long been criticized for releasing dodgy data and overestimating economic growth, population and many other indicators.

  • Despite a bruising lockdown in Shanghai and severe curbs in Beijing to halt Covid-19, China is still stepping up mass-testing in a move that dashes hopes for a shift away from its costly Covid Zero strategy.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Pacific focus | Foreign Minister Wang Yi insisted China has no desire to engage in "geopolitical competition" over Pacific island nations, speaking during his marathon tour of the region. It comes as his Australian counterpart, Penny Wong, started her second visit to the area in a week as Canberra and Washington seek to counter Beijing's influence in the region.

Election fears | Conservative lawmakers are concerned that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson could respond to any effort to oust him with a snap general election. As Kitty Donaldson and Joe Mayes write, such a move would be a big gamble: Modeling by YouGov suggests that if a vote were held now the Tories would suffer heavy losses in key seats, with even Johnson's district under threat.

  • A worsening cost-of-living crisis, a messy political scandal and the threat of more fallout from the war in Ukraine form an unlikely backdrop for Queen Elizabeth II's Platinum Jubilee, a celebration of national stability.

Explainers you can use

Join our Twitter space, this week on the political shifts at play in Latin America, at 10 a.m. ET today. 

News to Note

  • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave her most direct admission yet that she made an incorrect call last year in predicting that elevated inflation wouldn't pose a continuing problem.
  • A potential future challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could face jail as a Turkish court considers charges he insulted the election authority, a case that threatens to imperil his career and heighten political tensions.
  • Hong Kong's next leader John Lee said the financial hub still faces hurdles in reopening the border with mainland China, after returning from his first meeting with President Xi Jinping since being selected to run the city.
  • The EU is considering a proposal to channel about $535 million to Africa to help tackle the continent's food crisis as the war in Ukraine cuts off vital supplies, sources say.

And finally ... When Osman Ali's sheep and goats were reduced to skin and bones and his crops wilted in the fields after years of drought in Somalia, the 29-year-old left for Brazil and started a months-long trudge to the US southern border. He joins a potential record number of African migrants trying to make it to the US, fleeing climate events expected to displace 86 million people from the continent by 2050.

Migrants of African nationalities in Tapachula, Mexico. Photographer: Victoria Razo/Bloomberg

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