There's a new plan taking shape to avoid energy calamity this winter. The gist of it, as Rachel Morison's scoop today makes clear, is simple: "Pay not to produce." National Grid wants to reduce energy demand in winter, so letters were sent to UK companies last week, seen by Bloomberg, asking how much they would need to be paid to reduce operations. Leaving aside the depressing idea of handing out cash for things not to be made (which all very much fits the current mood), this idea is just the latest blackout-themed news from National Grid. Morison — who covers energy for Bloomberg News — has a very good sense of what winter will look like. She gave me this rundown: "First National Grid would appeal to everyone (homes, businesses etc) to conserve what they can. Then they trigger pre-agreed contracts with industry and business to limit energy usage. That's what the letters revealed today achieve. "Then it gets a bit more serious. The network operator would need to limit supplies to gas-fired power plants and fire up the coal reserve to keep the lights on. After that they can do things like lower the voltage across the network. Cuts to household supply are the very last thing they'd do. They are trying to start up a separate scheme for households to give discounts on bills if you can cut use at peak times."
Before Parliament breaks up for summer Whitehall hopes to publish a new energy efficiency policy. Right now the most vulnerable people get government support but ministers accept there's little for low income earner-occupiers. But it's "fiendishly complicated," according to one government insider – nothing is yet signed off by ministers and any plan won't see new Treasury money. Today I asked one energy company boss if we will see blackouts this winter, despite all of these efforts. Their answer: "I doubt it very much." The rationale was that the UK's LNG capacity is larger than those in European countries. Rachel's report makes it clear that navigating winter will need more than a simple on-off switch. It may well be that the lights never truly go off, because of all the plans outlined above. We may avoid total blackouts, 1970s-style. Instead the economy would get used to periods of patchy supply. Greyouts, 2020s-style. |
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