Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Brussels Edition: Funding the war machine

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.As the war in Ukraine ap

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

As the war in Ukraine approaches its 100th day, sanctions are failing to stop Russia's public finances from swelling. Though it may be a pariah across the developed world — with corporate giants having fled and the economy heading for a deep recession — the war machine remains very much operational. Soaring energy and commodity prices are creating a flood of cash that could average $800 million a day this year. That will be a major concern for the EU, as it continues to struggle with securing agreement on a sixth package of sanctions, which cover crude oil imports. Hungary raised new or already rejected demands, sinking a push to clinch a deal yesterday. EU ambassadors may meet again today. Still, the EU is trying to coordinate a ban on providing the insurance services needed to ship Russian oil anywhere in the world with some Group of Seven members, including the UK. That would make it harder for Putin to restock his war chest. 

John Ainger

What's Happening

Danish Vote | Danish voters approved joining the EU's defense pact in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, signaling a historic shift in the country that's shunned deeper ties with the bloc. The proponents of removing an opt-out on EU military cooperation garnered 66.9% of the vote, according to public broadcaster DR.

New Euroland | The euro zone is moving closer to adding its 20th member after Croatia was ruled to be in acceptable shape to join the club next year. The Commission recommended that the Adriatic nation of 3.9 million people should be allowed to adopt the common currency after finding that it fulfills the necessary requirements on issues including inflation and public debt. 

Sick Man | Germany's economy might again become the "sick man of Europe," reprising a role from two decades ago as policies that kept factories humming turn sour. After years of pushing exports to China and building up energy links to Russia, Europe's largest economy faces a poisonous cocktail of risks.

Inflation Payments | German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is calling for coordinated action with employers and labor unions to address the recent surge in inflation and prevent excessive wage hikes from further fueling record price gains. A possible solution is a one-time payment for workers.

Polish Plans | The EU approved Poland's post-pandemic recovery plan, which could unlock as much as 36 billion euros in aid, money urgently needed to cope with millions of refugees who have fled Ukraine. The decision is more a gesture of goodwill and doesn't mean the country will immediately access the funds. Here's what Poland still has to do.

In Case You Missed It

Climate Lending | ECB President Christine Lagarde said she has an open mind on using the institution's lending facilities to encourage the transition to carbon neutrality. She spoke after a letter called on policy makers to offer a "green discount rate" when lending money to banks to encourage them to fund clean-energy production and energy-efficiency renovations.

Greenwashing Scandal | Asoka Woehrmann, the embattled CEO of Deutsche Bank's DWS Group, resigned hours after a police raid at the asset manager, the culmination of months of controversy surrounding the executive. The greenwashing probes underscore the growing scrutiny of money managers and their sustainability claims as demand soars for ESG investments. 

Slovenian Handover | Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob won backing for his new government yesterday, pledging to bring back democratic values and fix the nation's ties with key EU member states. The 55-year-old former chief executive of energy company Gen-I scored a surprisingly strong victory in April elections, ousting Janez Jansa's Social Democratic Party.

'Fishing Trawler' | Meta, owner of Facebook, accused the EU's antitrust authority of acting like "a fishing super trawler" by netting vast amounts of "wholly irrelevant" documents in an attempt to build a case against the U.S. tech giant. The clash turns the tables on regulators who often express concerns over data-collection practices of Facebook's social network.

China's Bonus | Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU's top trade official, said China will exploit Russia's need to diversify where it sells its energy, with the bloc set to ban as much as 90% of Moscow's crude imports by year's end. He added that Russia is currently selling its oil to China at a 35% discount.

Chart of the Day

France topped an annual ranking of European countries as a destination for foreign investment projects for the third year in a row. Brexit continued to weigh on sentiment regarding the UK, and a tight labor supply dissuaded companies from Germany. The number of new projects in France rose 24% in 2021 compared to only 2% in Britain and a 10% decline in Germany, according to a report by EY. The euro area's second-biggest economy benefited from a reorganization of logistical and industrial supply chains and a rebound of sectors hit hard by the Covid pandemic, such as automotive and aeronautical manufacturers, the consulting company said. 

Today's Agenda

All times CET.

  • 10:20 a.m. EU climate chief Frans Timmermans speaks at the 24th International WDR Europaforum 2022
  • 10:30 a.m. Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis in Zagreb, Croatia
  • 12:25 p.m. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Vice President Margrethe Vestager participate in GLOBSEC 2022
  • 5:25 p.m. Von der Leyen holds press conference in Warsaw
  • 8:30 p.m. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg delivers remarks with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
  • 9:30 p.m. Atlantic Council hosts a fireside chat with Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas
  • Migration Commissioner Ylva Johansson hosts Schengen Forum

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