Tuesday, March 24, 2026

The US is recession-free but feels miserable

Job market? Bad. Inflation? Worse.
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Today's Agenda

The Great Disconnect

Here's a chart that might put some pep in your step:

"Notwithstanding the two-month Covid-19 recession of 2020, the US hasn't experienced a downturn since the end of the financial crisis in the middle of 2009," remarks Jonathan Levin. Scarily, that means that I haven't endured a lengthy downturn since I was in the eighth grade, back when Taylor Swift's Love Story came out. Does this mean that recessions are going extinct?

Sadly no, says Jonathan. Back in 2003, the University of Chicago's Robert Lucas infamously declared, "mission accomplished!" in preventing all future macroeconomic disasters. Five years later, the nation endured the worst downturn since the 1930s.

There's a nonzero chance that we'll repeat history. On the ground, the economic vibes aren't great. The Bloomberg Editorial Board says high prices are a top concern for voters and for those who own homes, Mark Gongloff says insurance inflation in particular is draining wallets:

Voters are also worried about job prospects, as this new poll from Gallup shows:

And — don't forget — we're at war, which Marcus Ashworth says has eroded reliable havens in the market. Even the dollar — "typically the biggest beneficiary of a flight to safety" — is not making major gains.

You'd think all those bad vibes might lead us down a dark, stagflationary path, yet "the US economy looks amazingly resilient," Jonathan notes. We might escape the "r-word" in 2026, but heed his warning: "Streaks can deceive us."

The Problem With Joe Kent

When Joe Kent resigned as director of the National Counterterrorism Center, some saw it as a valiant protest against President Donald Trump's adventure in the Middle East. Alas, writes David M. Drucker, that's an imperfect read on the situation: "Kent, 45, is a conspiracy theorist of such questionable character that he lacks almost all credibility, rendering him useless as an avatar for foes of the Iran war and Trump."

Photographer: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images North America

"Kent was twice rejected by the voters of Washington state's 3rd Congressional District," David writes, and for good reason. Beneath that head of perfectly coiffed hair is a brain consumed by the same election conspiracy theories parroted by Nick Fuentes. David notes that in Kent's mind, President Joe Biden cheated his way into the White House and Jan. 6 was an inside job. And the assassination of Charlie Kirk? Well, Israel might be to blame.

Given all that quackery, David says "lionizing Kent as a conscientious objector to Trump" is pure "folly." Read the whole thing.

Telltale Beauty Charts

Tuesday's news of Estée Lauder potentially buying Puig — which makes my favorite perfume from Byredo — made me wonder: What happens when you apply the fragrance pyramid to M&A? For Estée Lauder CEO Stephane de la Faverie, the first sniff of Puig might be alluring: Its portfolio includes iconic names like Carolina Herrera, Dr. Barbara Strum and Charlotte Tilbury. But Andrea Felsted says the scent begins to sour once you reach the deal's base notes. With only a year and a half under his belt, Andrea says de la Faverie is still working to simplify the beauty conglomerate's sprawling portfolio. Adding Puig into the mix "looks unnecessarily complex at this stage of the rejuvenation," she warns.

South Korea's most famous boy band might be known for its music, but Juliana Liu says BTS's cultural clout extends well beyond the Spotify algorithm. The $9 billion K-pop industry, she writes, is "part of a wider category of exports — including beauty, food and fashion — that brought in over $30 billion in 2024, amounting to just under half of international auto sales." Zooming in on cosmetics, Juliana says these artists are some of the most effective brand ambassadors for the industry. "With BTS members V and Jin fronting advertisements for K-beauty labels Tirtir and Laneige, respectively, the companies should be working to capitalize on the singers' extra visibility over the next year to bolster sales."

Further Reading

AI may win battles in Iran, but Ukraine's playbook is worth copying. — Parmy Olson

Taking Kharg Island may be a big risk for little reward. — James Stavridis

AI is hitting the sweet part of the S-curve. — Gautam Mukunda

The Iran energy price shock is getting very real in Europe. — Lionel Laurent

Markets may declare the war over. Is that the truth? — John Authers

In China, buyers from Gulf states have practically disappeared. — Shuli Ren

ICYMI

OpenAI scraps Sora.

Congress loses Delta perks.

The JD Vance whisperer.

Red Lobster's last gasp.

The best-value MBA programs.

Kickers

News you can … cruise?

Super Size Me, AI slop edition.

Chicago's craft brewery era is over. (h/t Lisa Jarvis)

TikTok's raunchy fruit videos.

Birds love cigarettes.

Notes: Please don't send fettuccine with pineapple cream sauce but do send feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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