Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Record heat comes to California

Los Angeles nears 100F
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It's March, but someone didn't tell that to the weather in the western US. The region is about to be hit by an intense heat wave with summer-like temperatures that will break records and cut into California's already-dwindling snowpack.

Today's newsletter has the latest forecast, including how many records could fall. Plus, the International Energy Agency is releasing 400 million barrels of oil in what its executive director called an "emergency collective action of unprecedented size" in response to the war in Iran.

Subscribe to Bloomberg News for the latest on climate and energy.

'Records will be shattered'

By Brian K Sullivan

An unusually early heat wave is set to grip Los Angeles and much of the Southwest, putting California's already fragile snowpack, and therefore its water supplies, at risk.

Temperatures in downtown Los Angeles on Friday are forecast to reach 98F (37C), coming within a degree of the highest reading for the month set on March 29, 1879, according to the National Weather Service. Across the region, temperatures are expected to rise 20F to 30F above normal, with several daily records likely to fall and some areas potentially breaking all-time March highs, the agency said.

A layer of smog lingers above the downtown Los Angeles skyline on December 6, 2024. The National Weather Service on December 4 issued an air quality alert for the greater Los Angeles area until midnight on December 6. (Photo by ETIENNE LAURENT / AFP) (Photo by ETIENNE LAURENT/AFP via Getty Images) Photographer: Etienne Laurent/AFP/Getty Images
Downtown Los Angeles
Photographer: Etienne Laurent/AFP/Getty Images

"Brutal heatwaves are not just a summertime concern anymore," said Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist with the Woodwell Climate Research Center. "Record-breaking March temperatures will stretch across the Southwest, South Central, and Southeast states this week."

Nine states across the Great Plains and West had their warmest winter going back 131 years, and five more, including California, had their second mildest, according to the US National Centers for Environmental Information. Overall, the US had its second-warmest winter season measured from Dec. 1 to Feb. 28.

This meant many of the storms striking the West arrived as rain and not snow. Much of that water ran through rivers into the Pacific Ocean or seeped underground. As a result, California and the Colorado River basin are perilously low on the frozen water needed to replenish supplies late in the spring and summer. With the coming heat wave, what little snow is left in California's Sierra Nevada range and elsewhere in the West may melt before it can be captured in reservoirs, presenting a water supply challenge for residents, farmers and livestock.

California depends on mountain snowpack as a natural reservoir that stores water through winter and releases it gradually in the spring and summer, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. Even when major storms delivered heavy snow, including a system linked to one of California's deadliest avalanches that killed nine people, the accumulation quickly melted.

"This heat wave looks pretty extreme by March standards across large portions of the Southwest, and that is saying something given the winter we have just experienced," Swain said. "It is a very big deal both in the shorter term and in the longer term."

Right now, North America is on a heat seesaw. New York City's Central Park reached a record 80F for the date, according to the National Weather Service. As the warmth in the East fades, the West will pick up the slack as temperatures rise. Through next Monday, 214 daily high-temperature records could be broken or tied across the US, and another 76 threatened, according to the US Weather Prediction Center.

"It is definitely not common to get this hot, this early," said Marc Chenard, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center.

Read the full story and more about how to adapt to a hotter climate.

Keeping cool

$115 million

The amount California has allocated to a program to install small, apartment-friendly heat pumps that can help keep things cool.

Here's your future

"This study provides us with a really grim, unfortunate glimpse into what potentially a one-and-a-half degree warmer world looks like."

Luke Parsons

Climate scientist, The Nature Conservancy

Parson's new study found that a third of the world's population lives in areas where dangerous heat affects daily life.

Billion-dollar disasters

By Olivia Raimonde

Extreme heat and its impact on water systems can cause costly damage. But a new analysis from research nonprofit Climate Central shows that there are bigger extreme weather threats to critical infrastructure.

Last year alone, there were 23 weather events with at least $1 billion in damages, the third highest on record. In an analysis published Monday, the group's senior climate impacts scientist, Adam Smith, noted that severe storms, like hail storms, accounted for 91% of billion-dollar events in the US last year.

That reflects not just the threat from such storms but an anomaly of 2025: Not a single hurricane made landfall in the US.

"Hurricanes historically are the most costly extreme we have tracked in this dataset," Smith said. "We were frankly lucky last year."

The group's analysis relies on a database of billion-dollar disasters it recreated after the Trump administration stopped updating a version managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last May.

With hurricane season just a few months out, subscribe to Weather Watch for a weekly look at the economic impacts of extreme weather.

IEA's big release

By Grant SmithNayla Razzouk, and Alberto Nardelli

The International Energy Agency agreed to discharge 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves, its largest-ever release, as governments seek to contain a price spike driven by the Middle East war.

"The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Wednesday in a statement. "IEA member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size."

LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 10: A general view of Navigator Terminals, an Oil storage depot along the River Thames on March 10, 2026 in London, England. This week, global oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2022 following an escalation of the US-Israel war with Iran. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged past the $100 mark before dipping below that psychological threshold. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) prices have also seen a 50% increase since the US and Israel attacked Iran. The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz which sees over a fifth of the global oil and LNG trade pass through narrow gulf. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images) Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images Europe
An oil storage depot in London.
Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images Europe

The decision was unanimous, Birol said, without specifying the pace, duration and location of the planned fuel releases — details that will be key for energy markets. Japan said earlier it would unilaterally release about 80 million barrels, starting as soon as March 16.

The IEA, which coordinates stockpile releases for OECD countries, has said its 32 members hold more than 1.2 billion barrels in public emergency stockpiles, including the largest buffer, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. There's a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks under government obligation.

Some traders and analysts doubt that consumer governments will be able to tap inventories quickly enough to fill the yawning supply gap.

"The devil is in the details," Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at intelligence firm Kpler Ltd., said before the IEA's announcement. "The key question is how quick they will release this."

Read the full story to see how this compares to previous IEA releases.

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