| If there's one thing you must know about Bloomberg Opinion, it's that no column we write is more than six degrees of separation from the Jones Act. I haven't actually tested that hypothesis, but Mark Gongloff once told me that, and I absolutely believe him. I've been working at this place long enough to know that nothing gets these writers going quite like hating on the obscure 1920s law that requires all maritime trade between US ports to be carried on ships built, crewed, AND owned by Americans. Our columnists have written about scrapping the thing pretty much every year like clockwork, so of course, when this Reuters headline crossed the transom, everyone's ears perked up: *TRUMP WEIGHS EASING JONES ACT REQUIREMENTS OVER OIL PRICE America is not a shipbuilding powerhouse. The beleaguered industry faces high costs that make it difficult to move domestically produced oil between US ports. So even as the US pumps record amounts of crude, the Jones Act prevents supply from getting to places where it's needed, such as California. Under normal circumstances, that's annoying. But during a war? It could quickly become a problem. On X, longtime Jones Act truther and Bloomberg Opinion contributor Scott Lincicome highlighted the irony of the century-old law:  To be clear, President Donald Trump is not waiving the act — yet — but prior to his press conference this evening, Reuters reported that he reviewed a set of options to tame oil prices, which are, uh, all over the place, according to Bloomberg News: "During regular trading, West Texas Intermediate swung in a roughly $28 range — the widest range since prices briefly turned negative during the depths of the pandemic. Brent settled below $99, down from an intraday high of $119.50, marking the largest-ever drop from an intraday high to a closing price on record." As gasoline prices surge, Javier Blas says, "Iran's strategy in its war with the US and Israel is by now clear: Impose an intolerable economic cost on President Donald Trump, forcing him to abandon his 'war of choice.'" But the East-West pipeline — a 1,200-kilometer tube crisscrossing the Arabian Peninsula from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea — could buy Trump some time: "The Saudis built it 45 years ago thinking that, one day, Tehran would manage to do what was then unthinkable and halt shipments through the [Strait of Hormuz]," Javier explains. It won't offset the 20 million barrels a day that pass through the strait, but it could act as a temporary cushion. "For an oil spike to become a full-blown crisis, the price needs to move higher and stay there for a time. But as the days of bombings and counter-attacks turn into weeks, it will start to hurt the market," he notes. Shuli Ren says the odds of a short-lived conflict are low. "Tehran has named Mojtaba Khamenei — a son of the country's slain supreme leader — as his successor, which is the opposite of an offramp for the war," she writes. "On Monday, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index at one point tumbled the most since last April, with Korea and Japan leading the declines. Treasuries sold off as well as traders expect more bad news for the rest of the week." The president seems unbothered by the market uncertainty. On Sunday, prediction markets put "a 48% probability on the notion that there still won't be a ceasefire by the end of next month," writes John Authers. But by Monday afternoon, that figure jumped to 62% after Trump told CBS, "I think the war is very complete, pretty much" and said that the military operation is "very far" ahead. "I have a plan for everything," Trump told the New York Post in a separate interview Monday, referencing the chaos in oil prices. "You'll be very happy." Another Trump's Affordability Gaffe | Nearly 200,000 people have watched Kai Trump's tone-deaf vlog, "I Brought My Secret Service to Erewhon," which she posted to YouTube on Sunday. I am, unfortunately, one of the people whose eyeballs the president's granddaughter has monetized. After watching her spend $233 on amino acid tablets, stress-relieving ashwagandha, Korean short ribs, buffalo cauliflower, rice balls, lavender lemonade, a sea moss gel smoothie, sushi, a glass jar of dates, and hyper-oxygenated water, I have lots of questions. Like, did she really share her Hailey Bieber Strawberry Glaze Skin Smoothie with her Secret Service agent?? Does she regret saying, "I'm gonna need to file for bankruptcy" after learning the grocery store sold $165 hoodies? None of it is a great look for an administration trying to allay voters' economic fears during a war: "If Trump is unable or unwilling to mount a sustained campaign to rebuild confidence in his economic management, how will he and the GOP contest the midterm?" Ronald Brownstein writes. "His State of the Union offered a clear signal. Trump came to life only when he unspooled a greatest-hits revival of his sharpest culture-war arguments from 2024, painting Democrats as both weak and extreme … But historically, views of the out-of-power party have not influenced midterms nearly as much as assessments of the incumbent president." If energy prices continue to spike and growth slows, Trump's biggest obstacle might be stagflation. "It's the Federal Reserve's worst nightmare, because standard monetary tools can't cope," Bloomberg's Editorial Board explains. "Cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and you risk entrenching the rise in inflation; raise them to curb inflation and you risk a deeper slump." |
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