Monday, March 9, 2026

Oil price volatility, Iran soccer players get visas

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Good morning, Rich from the Melbourne bureau here. War and oil dominate headlines today, as the Iran conflict's impact on energy ripples across the global economy. President Donald Trump threw investors a curveball late Monday in the US, describing the war as "very complete," in comments that led the stock market to pare back some of its losses. Oil prices fell.

In Australia, the conflict's impact on energy has triggered a surge in fuel demand. Air New Zealand suspended its earnings guidance, given the potential for quickly rising jet fuel prices. For now, uncertainty reigns. - Richard Henderson, cross-asset reporter.

What's happening now

Australia is in the grip of a fuel demand surge as consumers stock up to avert any potential supply disruptions from the Iran war. A "big spike in extra orders," has created "supply chain issues," according to Energy Minister Chris Bowen. There is sufficient fuel supply, Bowen said, with 3 billion liters of diesel and 1.5 billion liters of petrol in stock in the country.

The Iran conflict has even touched the sporting pitch. Canberra has granted humanitarian visas to five Iranian female soccer players who sought asylum, citing fears for their safety after they declined to sing the national anthem during a match on the Gold Coast last week. 

Air New Zealand suspended its earnings guidance as wildly fluctuating jet fuel prices mean the assumptions it made less than two weeks ago are no longer valid. Jet fuel has jumped to as much as $200 a barrel in recent days from around $85 beforehand, the airline said.

What happened overnight

US stocks and bonds staged a dramatic comeback and oil prices fell Monday in the US after Trump indicated the Iran war may be nearing a conclusion. The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% after the president's comments, with the equity benchmark erasing an intraday loss of over 1.5%. US crude dropped to around $87 in late hours.

Trump's optimistic tone was captured in a CBS News phone interview Monday, the 10th day of the Iran war, amid sharply fluctuating oil prices. "I think the war is very complete, pretty much" and the military operation is "very far" ahead of its initial four- to five-week timeframe, Trump said. "They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force," he said of Iran.

Smoke above petroleum storage facilities following strikes in Tehran, Iran, on March 9, 2026. Photographer: Morteza Nikoubazi/NurPhoto/Getty Images
Smoke above petroleum storage facilities following strikes in Tehran on March 9.
Photographer: Morteza Nikoubazi/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Oil prices could find further stability should countries begin to tap reserves. Group of Seven finance ministers said the option to release strategic oil reserves was on the table, although the group isn't at the point of doing so yet.

Artificial intelligence company Anthropic PBC sued the US Defense Department for declaring the company posed a risk to the US supply chain. The move ramps up a high-stakes dispute with the Pentagon over safeguards on the company's technology.

What to watch

All Times Sydney

  • 10:30 a.m.: Westpac Consumer Confidence
  • 11:30 a.m.: NAB Business Confidence

One more thing...

Apple's artificial intelligence struggles are rippling through its product plans, forcing the company to delay a long-in-the-works smart home display until later this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The product, code-named J490, was first scheduled for spring 2025 but was postponed to let the company finish work on a new Siri digital assistant — an integral piece of the device's interface.

Apple HomePod speakers.
Apple HomePod speakers.
Photographer: Samyukta Lakshmi/Bloomberg

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