Crypto News: Oil keeps climbing

Like two ships passing, oil prices continued to rise and stock markets fell during the sixth day of the US-Israel war with Iran. Begun on Feb. 28 by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the conflict has become a regional conflagration, touching a dozen or more countries and killing at least 1,200 people, the vast majority Iranians.

Nations across the Middle East reported interceptions of Iranian missiles and drones on Thursday, with Qatar telling residents to remain indoors due to the threat. Tehran said it launched drone attacks on US forces in Iraq and Kuwait, and struck an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, underlining the risk to shipping in the energy-rich region. Another ship was hit earlier this week in the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier in the day, Beijing told major refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, reflecting efforts to prioritize domestic needs in the face of shortages that threaten to ensnare consumers abroad. Japanese refiners asked their government to release oil from strategic petroleum reserves. Elsewhere, Kuwait has cut processing rates at its three oil refineries.

"If we see even one more successful strike on an oil tanker or infrastructure, or sustained disruption, prices can spike sharply again," said Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova Pte. —David E. Rovella

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Why the Iran War May Hurt Trump

The conflict has predictably sent energy prices skyward, which means Trump's decision to go to war could hurt Republicans in an election year.

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Trump's rare defeat on tariffs at the hands of a usually friendly US Supreme Court came after almost a year of litigation. His facially illegal use of an emergency statute to justify his trade war was eventually vetoed by a 6-3 majority of the Republican-appointee controlled court.

The administration quickly pivoted to another federal law to justify a trade strategy that's largely hurt US businesses and consumers (rather than foreign exporters), most of whom want their money back. But Trump has expressed reluctance to do so, and a judge noted this week that he didn't seem to be complying with the Supreme Court's decision.

Now, two dozen states have sued the administration again, alleging that not unlike Trump's attempt to use an ill-suited federal statute for his trade war last year, the current legal justification is almost equally suspect. "After the Supreme Court rejected his first attempt to impose sweeping tariffs, the president is causing more economic chaos and expecting Americans to foot the bill," said New York Attorney General Letitia James, who is co-leading the lawsuit.

When Kristi Noem was made head of the US Department of Homeland Security, she was arguably well known for being the outspoken, hard-right Republican governor of South Dakota who wrote in her memoir about killing a dog. She left today, fired by Trump, and is now perhaps better known for having directed immigration agencies that were behind the killings of three US citizens, part of a nationwide deportation dragnet that filled American streets with heavily armed agents.

It was Noem's recent testimony before Congress, however, that may have lost her the job. Noem, 54, who has been excoriated this week by Democrats and a few Republicans for a litany of alleged misconduct, told lawmakers Trump signed off on a roughly $200 million ad campaign that featured her.

Trump is replacing her with Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin, who like Noem comes to the national security post with little in the way of traditional qualifications. An ardent Trump supporter, plumbing company owner and former mixed-martial arts fighter, Mullin made headlines in 2023 when, during a Senate hearing, he tried to start a fistfight with a witness.

Markwayne Mullin Photographer: Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg

Oracle chief Larry Ellison plans to terminate thousands of his employees in divisions across the company in a scramble to save money. The company is increasingly viewed as the canary in the coal mine in terms of fears of an AI-inducted market correction.

The legacy tech firm has embarked on a historic build-out of data centers to power artificial intelligence workloads for customers such as OpenAI. The company, long known for its database software, has been making a transition the past few years to bulk up its cloud computing unit with a focus on AI, intending to become a viable competitor to market leaders Amazon and Microsoft.

However, Wall Street projects the cloud unit's spending on data centers will push Oracle's cash flow negative over the coming years before the spending begins to pay off.

Bond options traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will forgo any rate cuts this year, given the war, existing inflation and how rising oil prices may make matters worse.

The tempering of Fed cut expectations sparked a Treasuries selloff in recent days, lifting yields to the highest levels in several weeks. That marks a reversal of a strong rally in February, when concern over potential disruption from AI and cracks in the private credit market sparked haven demand.

"When the price of oil spiked, we have to think about its impact on inflation," said Dan Carter, a senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors. "This is going to impact inflation in the upward direction and makes it less likely that the Fed is going to be able to cut."

Brazilian banks will pay more than $6 billion to the country's deposit insurance fund by the end of this month as its financial system grapples with the costs of Banco Master SA's failure.

Banco Master got liquidated by the country's central bank in November amid allegations of fraud. Chief Executive Officer Daniel Vorcaro was arrested and later released with an ankle monitor that same month, but he was arrested again Wednesday as authorities said there's a risk he would meddle in investigations.