Crypto News: Iran war intensifies

Both sides escalated attacks during the eleventh day of the US-Israel war with Iran as oil markets saw fresh volatility and the Trump administration continued to broadcast mixed messages about the reasons it went to war, and how that war might end. US officials signaled there was little chance of diplomatic talks, throwing cold water on Donald Trump's recent suggestions the conflict could be resolved soon.

Attention remained focused on oil markets Tuesday, which continued to whipsaw in large part due to those confusing signals from Washington. Trump on Saturday threatened Iran with even broader attacks, then backpedaled on Monday as markets tanked and oil spiked. Then last night, the US president simultaneously reaffirmed his threats and hope for a quick end to the conflict. More than 1,700 people have been killed in Iran and Lebanon since the war began, according to local authorities.

The US government's communication issue wasn't limited to the bombing campaign. On Tuesday, the White House acknowledged that a post from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had erroneously claimed an oil tanker had been escorted through the Strait of Hormuz, a prospect Trump had previously alluded to as a potential way to reassure oil markets. It turns out it was not the case. "I can confirm that the US Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time," a White House spokesperson said.

Oil prices, which almost touched $120 this weekend, plummeted by almost 20% to below $77 a barrel briefly after Wright's post. Brent crude futures ended the day near $88 a barrel, well above roughly $72 a barrel before the war. — Jordan Parker Erb

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How Does This War End? The US Needs a Better Answer

More than a week after the US and Israel launched punishing airstrikes against Iran, neither side appears ready to pause hostilities. The Islamic Republic will surely pay the bigger price, but that doesn't mean the US can ignore the long-term costs of fighting without a realistic endgame in mind.

Google is said to be providing the Pentagon with artificial intelligence agents for unclassified work. Google's Gemini AI agents, which can undertake work independently on behalf of a user who sets them tasks, will help Pentagon employees automate routine jobs.

"We're starting with unclassified because that's where most of the users are, and then we'll get to classified and top secret," said Emil Michael, the under secretary of defense for research and engineering. The military's expanding use of AI—including in the war with Iran—is fueling controversy at many of the companies developing the technology.

Sales of previously owned US homes unexpectedly rose in February and the prior month was revised up, helped by a decline in mortgage rates and modest growth in asking prices. Contract closings increased 1.7% to a 4.09 million annualized rate, according to National Association of Realtors data released Tuesday.

One emerging bright spot for the housing market is improving affordability, with mortgage rates receding recently along with price growth. The NAR's monthly housing affordability gauge, which reflects changes in home prices, median income and borrowing costs, stands at the most favorable reading since 2022.

Amazon is said to have drawn about $126 billion of peak demand for its US bond sale, one of the largest ever for a corporate offering. The demand underscores how investor appetite for hyperscaler debt remains strong even as rising uncertainty over the widening conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on the US economy rattles markets. The Amazon deal still ranks behind the $129 billion in orders for Oracle's bond sale last month, but above the $125 billion for Meta's in October.

US road trips by Canadians fell to the lowest level in four years, even as trips overseas increase. Just over 1 million Canadians returned from the US by car in February, the lowest level since March 2022, when the Omicron variant of Covid-19 was spreading and some public health measures were still in place.

Many Canadians began cutting back on travel to the US last year in response to Trump's tariffs and his attacks on Canada's sovereignty, as well as the Republican's nationwide deportation campaign.

Bill Ackman is returning to the IPO market with a combined offering for his hedge fund manager and a new closed-end fund, the latest move in the billionaire's long campaign to expand his asset management empire to public market investors.

The initial public offering for Pershing Square USA, the closed-end fund, would also give investors stakes in Pershing Square, his alternative asset management firm. For every 100 shares of the closed-end fund IPO purchased by a buyer, that investor will receive 20 shares in the management company, the filing shows.

Ackman is looking to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion for Pershing Square USA in the combined deal, with investors who buy shares in the closed-end fund at $50 apiece receiving the management firm's shares for no additional cost.

Bill Ackman, chief executive officer of Pershing Square Capital Management LP, speaks during an interview for an episode of "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" in New York, US, on Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2023. Ackman in October said he covered his short bet on US Treasuries, noting "there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates." Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg

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Bill Ackman Is Back, and He Wants Your Money Again

Bond traders have shifted to wagering on losses in Treasuries, aggressively dumping bullish futures positions after the Iran war triggered a surge in oil prices and sparked inflationary worries.

The swing in sentiment, following a big February rally in US government debt, came last week as yields soared along with crude in response to the broadening hostilities. Traders have also pared the amount of Federal Reserve policy easing they expect this year ahead of Wednesday data that's projected to show inflation remained well above the central bank's target even before the fighting erupted.

This month's slump in Treasuries "is really a deleveraging dynamic," with traders liquidating long positions as they price in fewer Fed cuts and the risk of hotter inflation, said David Bieber, a strategist at Citigroup.