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Pfizer Pops on Q4 Results—But This May Be the Catalyst That Matters Most
Submitted by Chris Markoch. First Published: 2/5/2026.
Quick Look
- Pfizer stock jumped after a beating on the top and bottom lines, but the rally may reflect more than just strong quarterly results and short-term GLP-1 excitement.
- Positive Phase 2b GLP-1 obesity data gives Pfizer optionality, though meaningful revenue from weight-loss drugs is still several years away.
- An expanding oncology pipeline and AI-driven R&D strategy could be the most overlooked long-term growth catalysts for PFE.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) after delivering a double beat in its fourth-quarter earnings report.
Revenue of $17.56 billion topped analysts' estimates of $16.93 billion. On the bottom line, Pfizer delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69, beating estimates of $0.57. Highlighting the report was Pfizer's announcement of positive topline results from the Phase 2b study for its lead GLP-1 candidate.
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Get the full story on this opportunity now.PFE stock closed up 4% on Feb. 4 as analysts and investors digested the report.
The bullish thesis is that while GLP-1 headlines may drive near-term excitement, Pfizer's more durable upside is more likely to come from its expanding oncology pipeline and accelerating use of artificial intelligence across R&D. That view starts with the company's push into obesity, where it reported a notable clinical update alongside the quarter.
Pfizer Wants a Piece of the Weight-Loss Drug Pie
The weight-loss drug market is expanding quickly. Data show the global GLP-1 market will grow from $62.2 billion in 2025 to $157 billion by 2035, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 9.7%.
That growth helps explain why billions of dollars are flooding into the industry as companies compete for market share.
For Pfizer, that effort centers on its lead GLP-1 candidate, MET-097i. The company announced results from its Phase 2b VESPER-3 study, which met its primary endpoint and showed a statistically significant, placebo-adjusted weight loss of up to 12.3% at 28 weeks.
Pfizer also noted that patients continued to lose weight after transitioning from weekly to monthly dosing, with no plateau observed by the end of the 28 weeks.
The Growth Driver Investors May Be Missing
Immediately after the report, conventional wisdom attributed the stock's gain to the positive clinical trial results. That may be true, but investors should be cautious about treating that as a sustained catalyst.
While Pfizer's obesity drugs show promise, it may take time for that to meaningfully move the company's top line. And the GLP-1 trade is expanding quickly — as Eli Lilly & Co.'s (NYSE: LLY) results show, the largest players aren't ceding leadership in obesity easily.
There are other reasons to be bullish on PFE, notably its oncology portfolio. Business Research Insights values the global oncology drugs market at roughly $264.92 billion in 2026, projected to climb to $648.08 billion by 2035, a CAGR of about 10.3%.
A Growing Pipeline Gives Pfizer Many Shots on Goal
As of late 2025, Pfizer had roughly 60 candidates in its pipeline — each representing an opportunity to capture market share. The portfolio was bolstered significantly by its acquisition of Seagen in 2023, which added antibody-drug conjugate expertise and other oncology assets.
Pfizer's late-stage roster includes candidates such as vepdegestrant, a next-generation targeted protein degrader (PROTAC), paired with atirmociclib, a selective CDK4 inhibitor, being evaluated for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer.
Pfizer also has multiple other late-stage candidates, including:
- Sigvotatug vedotin, an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) in Phase 3 testing (e.g., Be6A LUNG-01) against metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, leveraging Seagen-acquired ADC expertise.
- Sasanlimab, which targets bladder cancer, and a bispecific PD-1xVEGF agent (PF-4404) that is being combined with Padcev to treat urothelial cancer, positioning these candidates for potential blockbuster status amid oncology growth.
Pfizer could bring multiple new drugs to market over the next five to 10 years. That potential is amplified by the company's commitment to artificial intelligence (AI), which is becoming essential across the biopharmaceutical sector.
Pfizer integrates AI across R&D through partnerships like Boltz for biomolecular modeling, XtalPi for molecular design, and Data4Cure for oncology data analytics, speeding target identification by at least 50% with tools such as OncoScout. Internally, platforms like "Charlie" handle data mining, predictions, and content generation, while collaborations with NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) help optimize discovery and manufacturing.
These efforts played a role in the company's rapid development of Paxlovid and support catalysts in oncology and obesity through 2026. Pfizer is targeting $1.2 billion in savings by 2027 from efficiency gains.
Industry-wide, AI is projected to boost productivity by roughly 35% to 45% by improving preclinical decisions and trial design, making it a core competitive advantage rather than optional hype. Pfizer's early adoption of these tools should be a tailwind for investors over the medium and long term.
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