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Meta Soars After-Hours, Forecasting Fastest Growth Since 2021
Author: Leo Miller. First Published: 1/29/2026.
Quick Look
- Meta Platforms’ Q4 results beat expectations, and its Q1 guidance points to faster growth than analysts anticipated.
- Stronger engagement and rising ad impressions suggest the company’s AI-driven ad tools are translating into revenue momentum.
- Investors largely shrugged off higher 2026 spending plans as growth regained the spotlight.
After months of struggling, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) may have shifted the narrative around its business. In October, the Magnificent Seven stock fell 11% after its Q3 earnings report, amid concerns about escalating artificial intelligence (AI) spending.
Meta appears to have redeemed itself with its Q4 2025 earnings report, released on Jan. 28. The stock was up approximately 8% in after-hours trading as of 7:00 p.m. ET. The results are forcing skeptics to reassess the outlook, with growth taking center stage over spending worries.
Meta Posts Strong Beats and Stellar Guidance
Buffett's Parting Gift to Berkshire Hathaway? (Ad)
The biggest tech investors have unloaded their top AI investments. Peter Thiel's fund dumped its entire $100 million Nvidia stake. SoftBank unloaded its entire $5.8 billion position. Perhaps the biggest signal is Berkshire Hathaway sitting on $382 billion in cash, more than Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple combined. Was this Warren Buffett's parting gift before stepping down? Four unstoppable market forces could upend the economy in the coming weeks. Any one could be devastating alone, but four at the same time would wreak havoc. The last time this played out was over 50 years ago, leading to a lost decade for stocks.
Watch the interview revealing these four market forces.In Q4, Meta reported revenue of $59.9 billion, roughly 24% year-over-year growth, comfortably above estimates of $58.3 billion (about 21% growth). Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.88 beat expectations as well, rising nearly 11% from the prior year and exceeding estimates of $8.16.
Most striking was Meta’s guidance for Q1 2026. At the midpoint, the company expects about $55 billion in revenue, well above the $51.3 billion analysts expected. That midpoint implies roughly 30% year-over-year revenue growth for the quarter — the fastest pace since Q3 2021.
This acceleration in growth is exactly what investors wanted to see and provides further evidence that Meta’s AI investments are beginning to pay off.
Among Meta’s operating metrics, growth in ad impressions delivered stood out. Ad impressions delivered measures the number of ads shown across Meta’s platforms during the quarter; it rose 18%, the highest rate in nearly two years. CFO Susan Li attributed the increase to stronger engagement and user growth. For example, Meta reported that Instagram Reels watch time was up 30% year-over-year, a clear sign of heightened user engagement.
Higher engagement suggests Meta’s AI-powered recommendation and ranking models are improving. As those models better personalize content, users spend more time on Meta’s apps, enabling the company to show more ads and boost monetization.
Markets Brush Off Higher-than-Expected Spending Forecasts
Concerns about rising capital expenditure (CapEx) have weighed on the stock in recent months. Meta’s CapEx guidance for 2026, however, came in well above Wall Street expectations.
The company expects to spend between $115 billion and $135 billion on CapEx in 2026; analysts had modeled roughly $110 billion. At the midpoint, Meta’s guidance represents a 73% increase versus 2025 CapEx of $72.2 billion.
Meta also forecast total expenses of $162 billion to $169 billion for 2026, again above consensus of about $150 billion.
One important detail in management’s guidance: despite the infrastructure spending increase, they said, "Despite the meaningful step up in infrastructure investment, in 2026, we expect to deliver operating income that is above 2025 operating income."
Note that: Revenue = Operating Income + Total Expenses
Using that relationship and management’s statements provides a rough revenue estimate for 2026. Meta generated $83.3 billion in operating income in 2025; using the high end of the 2026 expense range ($169 billion) and assuming operating income is at least the same implies roughly $252.3 billion in revenue for 2026. That would represent about 25.5% growth versus full-year 2025 revenue of $201 billion — well above the ~18.3% analysts had forecast for 2026. (This is a conservative estimate because it uses the high-end expense figure and assumes operating income only matches 2025.)
Growth Overshadows Spending as Meta’s AI Strategy Sinks Its Teeth In
Although investors were focused on Meta’s expense guidance, the company countered with substantially stronger growth projections. Some critics argue Meta has not built a best-in-class general-purpose AI model, but the company’s results suggest its AI-driven recommendations are materially improving engagement and ad monetization.
Meta’s AI investments appear to be accelerating growth in its core social advertising business. After a difficult stretch, the company may have delivered the data it needed to reignite investor optimism.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching whether Meta can sustain engagement gains and convert them into continued ad revenue growth while effectively managing its stepped-up infrastructure spending. If it succeeds, the trade-off between higher CapEx and faster growth could be a compelling setup for the stock.
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