| Today, Businessweek Daily offers a special edition featuring stories from the March issue of the magazine, available online now. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Brad Stone is here with a preview. If you like what you see, tell your friends! Sign up for the newsletter here. Or tell us what you like. You can also subscribe to get the print edition. Will President Donald Trump utter the words "America" or "American" over 25 times in his State of the Union address tonight? Will the US strike Iran by March 7? Will Bitcoin ever hit $150,000? These are some of the bets that traders are endlessly analyzing, discussing, debating and ultimately wagering on inside the "high-octane, fast-twitch speed competitions of the prediction market world," writes Christopher Beam in the cover story for the March issue of Bloomberg Businessweek. Kalshi and its primary rival, Polymarket, allow users to bet on events both big and small, from military actions and elections to the weather and, of course, sports. The latest iteration of these betting markets (which have been around in some form since the early days of the Catholic Church, when people would bet on the papal enclaves) sprung from economists' abstract thought that the collective wisdom of the internet might point the way toward the most likely outcomes. Now these markets are everywhere, riding a relaxed regulatory environment, raising billions of dollars and facilitating billions in betting each week.  Photo illustration: 731; Photos: Getty Images, Bloomberg Polymarket and Kalshi pitch themselves as "sources of truth in a time of epistemic precarity," Beam writes. Polymarket Chief Executive Officer Shayne Coplan says his company shines a light "at the headwinds that could impact your life." Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour tells Beam that prediction markets "take debate from the realm of subjective emotion to the realm of objective math. And that's why it ends up being a little bit more truthful." Companies like Coinbase and Robinhood are buying it and adding prediction markets to their offerings. But they might also just be glorified gambling. Beam takes readers through lawsuits against the companies and the ease with which the markets can be gamed by insiders and bad actors. So, bettor beware, and before you wager—read our story. Elsewhere in the March issue of Businessweek, we look at what it's like to be Black, young or a cannabis banker on Wall Street; the ways in which Chair Jerome Powell is fortifying the Federal Reserve to withstand Trump's assault on its independence; and how Carol Tomé, CEO of the shipping juggernaut UPS, is trying to ward off pressure from Amazon, FedEx and Teamsters chief Sean O'Brien. We also have a package on the rising economic force that is Generation Alpha. If you run a business, you gotta understand how these kids spend and what they value. And in our Pursuits section, we feature the entertainment we forgot we loved, like magic shows, murder mysteries, amusement parks and pretty much anything else that gets us off our godforsaken phones. |
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