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The Time to Buy ServiceNow Is Now: Oversold and Ready for a Rebound
Author: Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 1/31/2026.
What You Need to Know
- ServiceNow looks set up for a 2026 rebound and may just need one clear catalyst to bring retail buyers back.
- Institutions are buying into the pullback in early 2026, treating it as a value-driven entry point.
- Cash flow and growth execution support the outlook, with recent equity gains reinforcing the longer-term case.
Valuation concerns capped ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) price action in 2025, producing a correction that has opened a buying opportunity heading into 2026. The Q4 release not only reaffirmed the company's strengths but also reinforced its longer-term outlook and improving value. Trading at roughly 30x current earnings and about 15x the 2030 outlook, the stock presents the potential for a solid double-digit to triple-digit price advance.
Institutional activity is another factor that highlights the early-2026 opportunity. Institutions sold on net in Q4 2025, harvesting losses for tax purposes, but were net buyers for the year and accelerated purchases in early 2026. Buying in January exceeded $6 billion — about 4% of market cap — and that institutional interest is likely to remain steady given the value opportunity.
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Key items from the Q4 release include a $5 billion increase to the company's buyback authorization. The additional authorization is aimed at offsetting dilution and is meaningful for investors. While ServiceNow doesn't pay a dividend and historically hasn't been an aggressive repurchaser, the larger authorization alongside heavy investment in growth helped deliver a 35% equity gain for investors in 2025. The year-end balance sheet suggests the company is well-positioned to continue executing its strategy, and the 2026 outlook points to another potential double-digit equity gain.
Generative AI Drives Q4 Strength for ServiceNow
ServiceNow posted a solid quarter, with revenue rising more than 20% to over $3.5 billion. Subscription revenue grew 21% year-over-year, supported by agentic and generative AI offerings and new client wins. The Now Assist generative AI tool is a major growth driver, with revenue more than doubling year-over-year, while net new contract volume for deals over $1 million climbed about 40%.
Margin performance was favorable despite the market's reaction. The company delivered margin strength, aided by revenue leverage and operational quality, leaving adjusted earnings ahead of expectations. Adjusted EPS of $0.92 beat the MarketBeat-tracked consensus by $0.03, and management provided a robust 2026 outlook. Guidance calls for revenue growth in the high-teens to low-20% range — still well above consensus — and may be conservative given increases in remaining performance obligations. Current RPO (cRPO) rose about 25% and total RPO increased roughly 26.5%, signaling the potential for acceleration during 2026.
ServiceNow Stock Overextends, Diverges From Indicators
ServiceNow's stock fell more than 10% after the Q4 release and guidance update and could face further near-term pressure. However, technical indicators show meaningful divergences in the stochastic and MACD, suggesting the selloff may be overextended and creating the conditions for a significant rebound. In that scenario, the stock could find a bottom in early 2026 and set up to recover later in the year.
The December stock split also influenced the selloff. Splits often give investors an opportunity to take profits, which can add short-term downward pressure. Historically, companies that split their shares tend to trend higher over the long term because splits generally occur after sustained price appreciation backed by strong fundamentals, cash flow, and capital returns. That dynamic suggests the current selling pressure may transition into accumulation as the year progresses.
The likely catalyst for a rebound would be sustained outperformance in an upcoming quarterly report. Continued strength could push analysts to revise estimates higher and bring retail investors back into the market. At present, analysts have trimmed price targets for this Moderate Buy-rated stock, with several moving toward the low end of their ranges — a level that is providing near-term support.
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