Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Say goodbye to that cheap flight in Mexico

Meet the latest antitrust nightmare.
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Today's Agenda

Big Jet Plane

When I was a kid, we had four gas stations in the center of my Connecticut hometown. By the time I got my driver's license in high school, there were only three. And now, there are just two. Why do they keep disappearing? It's not because all 20,000 residents suddenly started driving EVs and hybrids (though that shift likely dented the business). It's because buying gas in town is so absurdly expensive that drivers treat it like a last resort.

This is basic economics. When you price yourself into oblivion, people stop showing up. But when there's a true monopoly, customers can't skirt high prices by simply driving to the next town.

Take Mexico's two low-cost airlines — Grupo Viva Aerobus SA and Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación SAB, better known as Volaris — which are merging in a deal that would hand them roughly 70% of the country's passenger airline market. Juan Pablo Spinetto says you don't need a PhD in antitrust economics to know that this chart will get a lot worse over time:

"A firm controlling 70% of a market is almost always bad for consumers, bad for competition and bad for suppliers. This deal comes with extra red flags: As regulation experts have explained, scarce landing slots at Mexico City's saturated main airport already choke off potential new entrants," he writes. President Claudia Sheinbaum's public embrace of the deal is all but certain to make the bad situation a lot worse.

Meanwhile in China, Juliana Liu says Comac, a state-owned manufacturer, just wants a slice of the commercial aviation pie. "For decades, it has wanted to be the 'C' in the ABCs of aerospace after Airbus SE and Boeing Co. But to achieve that goal, it must solve an engineering puzzle that only a handful of companies have ever cracked: building a reliable jet engine." Last year, Comac ended up delivering only 15 of its single-aisle C919 jets — an 80% reduction of its original target.

"With more than 1,000 preliminary orders for the C919, Comac is working through its own backlog. Last year's tussle with Washington has vindicated a longstanding push by Aero Engine Corporation of China, or AECC, to create a homegrown engine for the aircraft." The trouble is, they've been working on this thing for almost two decades: "The propulsion system called the CJ-1000A began development in 2007. A model was shown publicly for the first time in 2011," Juliana writes.

In the years since then, it's been mostly crickets, save for this rare update last August on CCTV, and the engine won't be commercially available until 2030 at the earliest, she notes. By that time, who knows what the state of aviation will look like. Hopefully the field will be a bit more crowded than a two gas station-town.

The Great Thaw

You know it's bad out there when the New York Metro Weather guy is cheering on "warmer" temperatures in the mid-30s:

The East Coast's weeks-long deep freeze — which has claimed 18 lives in my city alone — is finally letting up. But the economic costs of icy power lines, trash-studded mounds of snow and astronomical heating bills will linger for months. Climate scientists expect the final tab to be in the billions.

You'd think such a severe weather event would be a concern for Washington, but Mark Gongoff says many policymakers see climate disasters and shrug. Just look at our Fed Chair-to-be, Kevin Warsh, who has said the central bank should ignore climate change, dismissing concern about it as a "bandwagon" that is "fashionable" and "fleeting." Similarly, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called it an issue that had "no clear nexus to safety and soundness" for banks. So, I guess that just means they're all gonna ignore this chart, then:

"The world has spent $20 trillion in the past 25 years on natural-disaster cleanup and higher insurance premiums, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, with annual costs rising steadily. The US alone has taken a $7 trillion hit from extreme weather in the past 12 years, making it twice as expensive as the Great Depression," Mark writes. "Home-insurance premiums have soared 69% since December 2019, according to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., far outpacing mortgage principal (23%), interest (27%) and tax (27%) costs during that time. The word for this is 'inflation,' one pillar of the Fed's dual mandate to stabilize prices and maximize employment."

Much like the thigh-high crosswalk snow tunnels that are now beginning to melt in Manhattan, ignoring the issue will only make it messier down the road. Read the whole thing.

Telltale Defense Charts

One of the lesser talked-about aspects of the war in Ukraine is how peace talks are in perpetual limbo, thanks to Russian President Vladimir Putin's constant dithering. "More than a year into negotiations that President Donald Trump said would take him 24 hours to resolve, talks in Dubai last week produced nothing beyond a prisoner swap — invaluable to the troops and families involved, but irrelevant to a settlement," writes Marc Champion. In keeping the prospect of a détente at arm's length, Marc says Putin has been able to press ahead — albeit very slowly — with its ground offensives in Ukraine. "If the White House wants a deal, it has to start piling pressure onto the Kremlin to end this invasion of choice and stop gifting Putin advantages that encourage him to fight on."

Elsewhere in wartime management, you have US stockpiles of missiles, which Thomas Black says have been depleted from actions in the Middle East and Ukraine. "The Pentagon wants to buy more and is willing to pay a good price for them," he writes, but "the supply side is a little trickier." RTX and Lockheed Martin — which both make a variety of missiles — "have a long history with the defense budget process and the whims of Capitol Hill," Thomas explains. "Programs championed under one administration can be scrapped by another. If RTX or Lockheed builds or expands a factory to triple production, that capacity may end up idle in the future," hence why they focus on stock buybacks to juice shareholder returns.

Further Reading

RFK Jr.'s vaccine skepticism grows more dangerous. — Bloomberg editorial board

France's elite is sounding the alarm on the far right. — Lionel Laurent

Even without Hims & Hers, knockoff GLP-1s still pose a risk. — Lisa Jarvis

Everyone in Asia wants a stronger Japan. Well, except China. — Karishma Vaswani

How Alphabet blitzed the bond market to fund its AI push. — Marcus Ashworth

Trump's approach to immigration failed him spectacularly. — David M. Drucker

Do banks trade bonds to get corporate financing work, or vice versa? — Matt Levine

ICYMI

Stonewall is Pride flag-less.

The FDA wants to ban BHA.

Casey Wasserman faces the music.

The FBI's long-awaited Guthrie update.

How Epstein's girlfriend got into Columbia.

Kickers

Secret mansion babies in Los Angeles.

Amelia Dimoldenberg's silver screen debut.

Radish greens are good for the gut.

Backflips on ice are dazzling viewers.

Children embrace their inner boomer.

Notes: Please send radis au beurre and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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