Crypto News: Putin’s Trump quandary

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Vladimir Putin enters the fifth year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine with the battlefield largely at a stalemate and his economy showing increasing strain.

A winter bombing campaign failed — just — to freeze Ukrainians into submission, though another massive attack overnight left dozens injured.

The Russian leader's best chance may now rest with Donald Trump.

The US president is pushing to end the war quickly, after 13 months of frustrating diplomacy that's drawn criticism in Europe for indulging Putin.

Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke last night, before US and Ukrainian officials meet in Geneva today. The Ukrainian president said they agreed the next round of US-led negotiations with Russia in early March should "create an opportunity to move talks to the leaders' level."

A summit, in other words.

European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas discusses the outlook for peace between Russia and Ukraine as the war enters its fifth year. "America has been very clear that they want this war to end. So if you want this war to end, then we should really do everything to put the pressure on the aggressor," Kallas tells Bloomberg's Oliver Crook. She also comments on Hungary's threat to block the latest sanctions package against Russia and a €90 billion ($106 billion) loan to Ukraine. — WATCH: European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas discusses the outlook for peace on Bloomberg TV.

Putin has ruled out meeting with Zelenskiy until there's a deal on the table to sign. Zelenskiy says it's the only way to resolve outstanding disagreements.

While Russia seems incapable of a military breakthrough, Putin shows no sign of compromising on his demands for Ukrainian territory.

Yet he also can't risk alienating Trump.

That gives Zelenskiy leverage to press his case for halting the war on existing positions, alongside complex arrangements for a demilitarized free economic zone in eastern Donetsk favored by the US.

The sides also still must resolve the future for Ukraine's Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

None of that is easy for Ukraine, the victim in this war. And it doesn't give Putin what he's always demanded.

Trump is likely to be increasingly consumed by domestic issues as November's midterm elections approach. He barely mentioned Ukraine in his State of the Union address.

That presents a dilemma for Putin.

Does he gamble that Russia's army and economy can withstand another year or more of war, or opt to ease the pressure and save face by cutting a deal now? — Anthony Halpin

A person stands at a makeshift memorial to fallen Ukrainian and foreign soldiers in Independence Square in Kyiv on Feb. 23. Photographer: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images — A memorial in Kyiv on Monday.

Global Must Reads

The US and Iran started a third round of nuclear talks today in Geneva with Trump's March 1-6 window for a deal looming and his threat of a military strike hanging over the Middle East. His claim this week that the US would "easily" prevail in any armed confrontation isn't supported by recent activity on the ground, with satellite images showing workers reinforcing key sites across the Islamic Republic.

Cuban forces killed four people who had opened fire from a speedboat with Florida tags, an incident with the potential to escalate an already tense standoff with the US. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington will investigate the shooting, while Cuba says the 10 passengers — Cubans living in the US — were carrying weapons and planning an uprising.

Cuban coast guard ships docked at the port of Havana on Feb. 25. Photographer: Adalberto Roque/AFP/Getty Images — Cuban coast guard ships docked at the port of Havana yesterday.

Trump will sign a directive in coming days raising his global tariff to 15% "where appropriate" and is seeking "continuity" with nations that have already struck trade deals with Washington, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told us. The president's latest levies will leave about €4.2 billion ($5 billion) of EU exports facing duties above the 15% ceiling agreed in its trade pact with the US, according to sources familiar with the bloc's assessment.

The tri-border region of Nigeria, Benin and Niger is becoming a new stronghold for jihadists, as militants turn forests and pastoral networks in West Africa into bases for recruitment and international attacks. Violence surged last year as Islamist insurgents pushed into strategic towns and stepped up coordinated operations, facilitated by weak state presence and porous borders, according to a report by Acled, a consultancy that tracks global crises.

A special election in the traditional Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton in Manchester should have been a shoo-in for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's party, which stormed the seat in the 2024 national ballot. Instead, after a run of flubs led to a stunning fall in esteem for the governing party, polls suggest today's vote will be a three-way race between Labour, Nigel Farage's populist right-wing Reform UK and the insurgent Greens.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a strengthening of defense, trade and counter-terrorism ties with Israel during a rare visit, forging closer bonds to combat security threats in their regions.

Former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is relocating to Australia, becoming the most high-profile addition to a growing wave of Kiwis moving across the Tasman in a trend that will be a key issue in November's general election.

Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation on Jan. 19. Photographer: Kerry Marshall/Getty Images — Ardern announcing her resignation as prime minister in Napier, New Zealand, in January 2023.

The approval rating of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum dipped to 56% in February, down nearly seven points since January and marking a fresh low for the leftist leader.

The US vowed to maintain high tariffs on China hours after Beijing warned against any future hikes, as Trump's sweeping levies return to the spotlight before his meeting with Xi Jinping.

*How is US higher education navigating the political, legal and financial pressures brought on by the Trump administration? Bloomberg journalists answer your questions in a Live Q&A today at 11am EST.* *Tune in here* *and send questions in advance to* *liveqa@bloomberg.net*.

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Chart of the Day

As German Chancellor Friedrich Merz tours China with a host of his country's business leaders, he may be heartened to see the Chinese yuan is at last starting to appreciate against the euro. Even with gains versus the dollar, China's closely controlled currency slumped around 8% against the euro last year, its biggest decline since 2003, helping turbocharge a flood of Chinese exports into Europe and prompting Berlin to accuse Chinese companies of enjoying advantages over their German counterparts. Merz said he'll push ahead with a new effort to strengthen Sino-German relations.

And Finally

North Korean ties with the US have been in deep freeze since a high profile bout of diplomacy during Trump's first term collapsed in 2019. Now, Kim Jong Un just wrapped up a seven-day meeting of the ruling party congress in Pyongyang with an offer of sorts: It may be possible to improve relations if Washington recognizes his country as a nuclear power. Mind you, Kim also outlined plans to bolster his weapons arsenal and vowed to build stronger intercontinental ballistic missiles, state media reported.