Lessons from The Leopard

Trump is ripping up old treaties and rebranding them in his name.

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. Everything must change to stay the same is the most quoted takeaway from The Leopard, but it's by no means the only lesson the sly Prince of Salina has to impart in this age of global upheaval. On the face of it, Donald Trump has been ripping up old treaties, from trade to nuclear arms and defense. In reality, do the US president's alternatives amount to much more than a rebranding exercise, a reworking of acronyms like NAFTA, JCPOA or START? China's DF-5C strategic nuclear missiles. Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images Europeans heading to this weekend's Munich Security Conference — "Davos with Guns" — would do well to remember that fear of a US annexation of Greenland was paramount last month, only for the crisis to be addressed with what amounts to another tweak to an existing agreement. To all intents and purposes, the Americans already had unlimited military access to the Danish territory — if they simply asked nicely. The real lesson for the old continent still smarting from the skewering they received in Munich last year from JD Vance, a self-professed hillbilly turned heir-apparent at Trump's court, is one they don't yet seem to have absorbed: accommodation. Squeezed between the US and China, Europe still clings to the idea of agency even as it lacks the means or will to assert it. Vance last year. Photographer: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images President Emmanuel Macron calls for a "moment of awakening." Yet France's sense of imperiousness runs into the awkward reality that Macron's a lame duck in a broken political system. In the current geopolitical world, dynasties are back, with strongmen looking to sons to seal succession as in the 19th century. The protagonist of Lampedusa's Leopard grasped how the old must get into bed with the new — today's equivalent might be Big Tech — to stay relevant. "Sicilians never want to improve for the simple reason that they think themselves perfect," says Don Fabrizio. "Their vanity is stronger than their misery." He could be talking about contemporary Europe. — Flavia Krause-Jackson Global Must Reads President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has dominated Turkish politics for more than two decades and succession has long been a taboo subject, though one potential candidate appears to be emerging as his younger son Bilal becomes more visible. The transition of power has now become a frequent discussion topic in the governing AK Party, and Bilal's entry into politics is under consideration with a view to his potentially becoming leader, sources said. President Erdoğan shakes hands with son Bilal during an awards event at Ataturk Cultural Center in Istanbul on Nov. 29. Photographer: Isa Terli/Anadolu/Getty Images Australia's trade minister is headed to Brussels to conclude long-running talks on a trade deal with the European Union, with both sides seeking an agreement and tighter ties in an increasingly unpredictable global environment. Meanwhile, the European parliament is moving closer to approving a pact with the US after senior lawmakers agreed to make some changes ahead of a vote planned this month. Kenya said it repatriated 27 citizens recruited to fight for Russia against Ukraine, as the families of 17 South African men participating in the war demanded that President Cyril Ramaphosa intervene to bring them home. The contrasting fortunes of the two groups, whom the families claim were lured to Russia under false pretenses, highlights a growing concern that Moscow's military is turning to foreign recruits to bolster its numbers. Tomorrow's election in Bangladesh marks one of the earliest tests of whether Gen Z–driven protest movements demanding greater opportunities for young people in developing countries around the world can translate street power into durable governance. The vote, more than a year after demonstrations ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is also a geopolitical inflection point — shaping how the world's eighth-most populous country balances ties with India and China. An anti-government protester on a statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh's founding father and parent of the ousted premier, Sheikh Hasina, in Dhaka, August 2024. Photographer: Abu Sufian Jewel/AFP/Getty Images Polish companies announced 22 acquisitions in Western Europe last year, the highest number on record, reflecting an economy that has grown into a $1 trillion regional powerhouse, with its gross domestic product per capita now about half that of neighboring Germany. While its politics are bitter and turbulent, the spree reflects how it's now flexing its muscles next door in Europe's biggest economy. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits the White House today as Israel's concerns mount over a potential diplomatic deal between Iran and the US. The US House passed a bill that would seek to exclude China from global financial institutions if it were to threaten Taiwan. The House could vote as soon as today on whether to reject some of Trump's tariff policies, after lawmakers blocked a last-ditch effort to prevent the balloting. Elon Musk's Starlink violates international law while blurring the line between commercial and military technologies, Iranian and Russian diplomats said. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day The slump in Treasuries after China's latest call to curb its holdings was fleeting, but it put a spotlight on Beijing's decade-long shift from US debt and rekindled fears about a broader, global retreat. Once the largest foreign lender to the US government, China has quietly halved its holdings of Treasuries since 2013 — and investors appear to have decided the latest headlines fit that trend. And Finally Guyana, a fast-growing petrostate of just 955,000 souls, is ripe with construction plans but short on workers. So the companies building roads, bridges and other infrastructure there are turning to Cuban migrants as a source of labor. The rush could accelerate with dire conditions in Cuba worsening now that the US has captured its principal ally in Venezuela and is threatening tariffs on any country that ships it fuel. Nearly one in five Cubans has left the island over the past decade, with an increasing number venturing on a new route to southern Brazil via Guyana, and ending up staying in the tiny South American nation. Construction workers at a prefabricated school in Georgetown, Guyana, on Sept. 25. Photographer: Yancey Haywood/Bloomberg More from Bloomberg Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries Next China for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it's going next Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com We're improving your newsletter experience and we'd love your feedback. If something looks off, help us by reporting it here. 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