Don here...
Jeff came in yesterday with a trade framework that cuts through everything.
Trend and momentum are not the same thing. Most traders treat them like they are.
And that mistake is costing people right now.
The setup on Walmart is the clearest example he put up all session.
Genesis COG had it flagged as a short. Jeff's condition was simple: it had to break $129. Above that level, the algorithms keep buying it. Below it, the trade opens up.
He entered a 125/130 spread with 30 days. Then he showed the technical picture: Bearish divergence. Bearish MACD. Bearish stochastics. Four sell signals on one chart.
The stock beat earnings by a penny and trades at a 44 PE on 10% sequential earnings growth. That multiple should be 20, not 44.
In today's Live Trading Room session replay, you'll see:
- The Genesis COG Walmart short and what triggers it. Jeff needs a close below $129 to activate the trade. He's in a 125/130 spread with 30 days. The weekly is curling over. He expects $121 to $115 within a month.
- Why the John Deere straddle was the right structure. The MACD on Deere was parabolic vertical. Jeff won't short it. But the straddle at $34 would have returned $3,800 on a 2-lot when the stock ran $72. Don't pick direction into earnings on a sacred cow. Straddle it.
- How Carvana exposed the difference between real earnings and accounting fiction. They beat by 300%. Jeff says that's impossible. Brandon Chapman was leaning bearish, and those who bought puts or sold call spreads got 100% returns. Jeff's rule: only trade it via options or spreads. Never invest in it. Period.
- The rate of change and MACD framework Jeff uses to read algorithm positioning. The zero line marks trend. The slope marks momentum. They are not the same thing. When both are bearish and aligned, the trade runs. When momentum is bearish but trend is bullish, you cap out fast. The S&P 500 right now shows three bear signals across both indicators. The weekly MACD is rolling over.
Jeff's current cash position is 55%. He explained why. Shorting bearish momentum in a bullish trend gets you 10% if you're lucky.
When trend and momentum finally align to the downside, the algos don't wait for you to catch up.
The slope on the weekly is moving from 20 degrees to 35. Jeff said once it hits 45 to 90, the market can drop 200 points before the session ends. He's not timing it. He's reading it.
→ Watch Jeff's full breakdown of the Walmart short setup, the Jenga market structure, and the slope-based approach that keeps him ahead of the algorithms
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
Every trade I make right now starts with the same question — am I on the right side of the next headline?
Thirty years ago I stopped asking that question.
I found a structure that gets paid whether the market goes up, stays flat, or sells off 24% before I lose a single dollar.
Retail traders couldn't access it until three years ago. I've had a 98% success rate since.
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