5 Charts to Watch for a Market Downturn

In Today’s Masters in Trading: Live LIVE: 5 Charts to Watch for a Market Downturn After volatile swings in January, the markets are in a state of relative quiet right now. The bond market is priced for total calm, with the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) index touching 4-year lows. But don’t be fooled – volatility is bubbling back up to the surface in a big way. That calm is being tested as countries like China, India, and Brazil quietly exit U.S. Treasuries en masse — dumping $29 billion in a single month. This is no one-off. Bloomberg reported Chinese regulators told banks to reduce Treasury holdings. This move is part of a multi-year BRICS shift out of dollar assets and into gold. The trend is accelerating, not slowing. On top of all that, the yen carry trade is tipping us off to more volatility to come. The yen is strengthening after Sanae Takaichi's historic landslide victory in Japan, putting pressure on this massive carry trade. You can learn more about it right here. Last time the yen moved this fast was in August 2024. Back then, global markets sold off hard, with the U.S. dollar and Yen breaking well below 150. That’s our danger zone. And I don’t see volatility retreating from here. But that sort of dislocation is where we live here at Masters in Trading. That mismatch between complacency and structural risk we’re seeing take shape is the setup for a massive, global price dislocation. And when volatility is this cheap across bonds and equities, you don't need to pick a direction. Straddles and strangles on rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, homebuilders, utilities, TLT) let you get paid when the calm breaks — in either direction. So join me for today’s episode of Masters in Trading LIVE at 11AM EST. I’ll walk through five specific early warning charts — MOVE, VVIX, Yen, Yield Curve, and VIX Term Structure — with exact alarm levels so you know what numbers to watch and when to get defensive. P.S. Are you interested in taking the next step toward options mastery? The Masters in Trading Options Challenge is right here to help you in your journey. The Challenge is where we take everything you’ve learned in my daily LIVEs — fixed risk, thesis-driven exits, laddered entries, defined-duration trades, and emotional discipline — and put it into practice in a structured, step-by-step environment. For seven days, we walk through the foundations of real options trading the way I learned them on the trading floor. You’ll learn exactly how I think, exactly how I build trades, and exactly how I manage both the winners and the losers. Just click here to check out what the Masters in Trading Options Challenge has in store for you. ALL ACCESS MEMBERS ALERT In today’s All Access, I’ll review our open positions and go over this week’s big wins. Don't have All Access? Call 1-800-784-0871 to learn more. Recommended Link 'Brutal' Rupture Coming to AI Stocks on February 17 The man who predicted the 2023 bank run has a new warning. "AI will soon rupture into two sectors," he says. It could either cost you ALL your gains since 2022... or potentially double your money if you understand what's coming to AI stocks this month and why. Click here to learn more. Got a Question? Be sure to join me live on YouTube and ask me anything. It’s a great way to connect directly with our trading community and make sure you’re getting the insights you need to help build a deeper understanding of the markets. Remember, the creative trader wins, Jonathan Rose Founder, Masters in Trading Who is Jonathan Rose? In 1997, Jonathan got his start as a floor trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He traded futures on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 during the dot-com boom and bust. In 2003, he became Director of Trading at a leading proprietary trading firm. His job was to manage the risk for the entire firm… with dozens of traders under his supervision. In 2010, the firm sold to a billion-dollar hedge fund. And Jonathan took a career break to train for the Wisconsin Ironman. After completing the 140-mile triathlon, in 2011, he took his trading career in a new direction. He became a market maker at the world’s largest at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. It’s the world's largest and most influential options exchange. But it wasn’t until 2015 that he found his true passion – teaching regular folks how to trade like the pros at Masters in Trading. Since then, he’s trained more than 100 professional traders and helped thousands of folks learn to trade options like pros. These folks not only get to learn the ropes with Jonathan. They can also follow his trade recommendations in real time. To learn more about joining Jonathan’s thriving community, and becoming the best trader you can be, visit here. 90-Day Trade Hall of Fame Company (Ticker) Portfolio Gain Duration Albemarle Corp. Advanced Notice 959% 31 days iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Advanced Notice 275% 26 days Alphatec Holdings Inc Earnings Advantage 213% 18 days Lyft Inc Advanced Notice 209% 13 days Canadian Solar Inc Divergence Trader 124% 9 days Note: These trades represent previously closed positions.

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