Thursday, January 29, 2026

The Minneapolis ICE charade in one chart

It was never about illegal immigrants.
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Today's Agenda

A Bogus Crackdown

It's hard to believe that one chart could debunk an entire political narrative, but sometimes it really is that simple:

In December, President Donald Trump dismissed Somali immigrants as unwanted "garbage," a remark that Justin Fox describes as a "disgusting display of racism and xenophobia." Those words became the justification for ICE's mission in Minneapolis. But just one glance at the data makes it clear that Trump's fight against the city's Somali community was never about stopping illegal immigrants. It was a tirade, plain and simple — and an ineffective one at that.

"Barring sweeping changes in the law or violations of it, the overwhelming majority of Somali-Americans are here to stay for the simple reason that they are Americans," Justin writes. Of the few noncitizens indicated in gray above, records suggest that nearly all are probably either legal permanent residents or refugees.

Today, Somali-Americans make up less than 0.06% of the US population. Trump's decision to single them out, Justin says, "has much more to do with his own pathologies and political calculations than any threat they pose to the American polity." Trump's treatment of Representative Ilhan Omar reinforces that point. On Tuesday, when she was sprayed with an unknown substance during a town hall, Trump said that she probably staged the attack — and since his spurious claim, there has been an arrest.

Whether border czar Tom Homan, who replaced Commander-at-Large Greg Bovino this week, can clean up the fallout in Minneapolis remains to be seen. Patricia Lopez is cautiously optimistic. "Since Homan's arrival, the agents who shot [Alex] Pretti have been placed on administrative leave and reportedly will be on desk duty until an investigation is complete. Bovino originally had said the agents — whose identities he refused to reveal — had simply been reassigned."

Still, Patricia warns that Homan faces steep obstacles: "ICE is now full of poorly trained agents," and "credibility is nil." Given the data Justin cites, that was a foregone conclusion.

Bonus White House Reading: Conservatives celebrating Trump's aggressive policy approach should ask themselves what will happen if those expanded powers end up in the hands of the far left. — Abby McCloskey

Germany's National Treasure

One of my favorite films as a child was National Treasure (which, if you've been reading this newsletter for a while, you might already know). I hate to spoil a good ending, but if you haven't seen it in the 21 (!) years since it came out, I don't have much hope for you. The film culminates with Nicolas Cage — who essentially plays a treasure hunter nepo baby — discovering a cavern of priceless relics which the Founding Fathers hid in the bowels of New York City's famed Trinity Church:

Source: Buena Vista Pictures

Watching that scene as a 9-year-old, I was floored. How did Benjamin Franklin and his fellow Freemasons get their hands on scrolls from the Library of Alexandria? Now, I know better. There are no blazing torches. There are no secret doors. There is no hidden treasure. But, wait a second, maybe Chris Bryant is changing my mind:

Eighty feet below the streets of Manhattan there's a New York Fed vault containing some $220 billion of German gold. Perhaps it's time Germany sold some of it.

My provocative suggestion was prompted by recent calls from opposition German politicians and the Bundesbank's former head of research Emanuel Mönch to repatriate this 1,236-ton stash, made up of almost 100,000 bars.

So you're telling me that there are tens of thousands of gold bars underneath 33 Liberty Street, a FIVE MINUTE WALK from Trinity Church?? It's not a hidden treasure, per se. Nor is it up for grabs. But it is substantial in size:

The price tag on Germany's big pile of gold is now equivalent to 18% of the country's debt. "Its holdings there date back to the postwar Bretton Woods system when the dollar was backed by the metal. New York is a major trading hub for gold, alongside London," Chris explains. Now, with Trump's erratic behavior towards the Fed and NATO, he says "Berlin is stuck between a geopolitical nugget and a hard place on this issue … Why not sell some of the hoard, taking advantage of soaring prices and rampant demand?" I know what Riley Poole would do.

It's a Love Story

With so much doom and gloom in the world, we all need something to look forward to. For me, that's Season 4 of Bridgerton, the first half of which airs on Netflix today. If you aren't caught up, forewarning — there are some minor spoilers ahead.

While most viewers will be preoccupied with the fate of the spare brother, Benedict Bridgerton, Mae Abdulbaki is most excited for the budding romance between the widowed matriarch of the household, Lady Violet Bridgerton, and her extremely suave, flirtatious friend Lord Marcus Anderson:

Source: Netflix

sad reality in Hollywood is that producers seldom pay attention to the romantic whims of those above a certain age. And when they do, it's often in passing. If you've seen HBO's The Gilded Age, you might remember how rushed Ada Brook's romantic subplot felt. The self-described "spinster" went from being courted by a reverend to marrying him to mourning his death, all within in a handful of episodes.

Bridgerton, though, is testing the status quo with Ruth Gemmell and Daniel Francis, the actors pictured above. "At 58, and after spending two seasons primarily playing a mother and friend, Gemmell, I imagine, may find it refreshing to step into a prominent romantic role in the show," Mae writes. "Having someone like her character find love, lust, and happiness sends a message that women don't have to remain young or mimic youth to be worthy of desire and adoration." Amen to that!

Telltale Charts

Speaking of romance, Dave Lee says Satya Nadella's love affair with AI has hit a rough patch. In late 2022, the Microsoft CEO was at the forefront of the boom when he decided to back Sam Altman's OpenAI. But a lot has changed since then: Microsoft is now entangled with Anthropic and OpenAI is cuddling up with SoftBank, Oracle, Google and Amazon. "All this AI polyamory has put Microsoft's eggs in a few more baskets, but it has also highlighted that Microsoft's early mover advantage has run its course," Dave writes. "The AI sparkle that illuminated a market value that more than doubled has diminished."

Elsewhere in AI woes, Scott Lincicome says Intel is losing precious market share to Advanced Micro Devices after a "stunningly bad strategic decision" to cut production capacity despite surging data center demand. "Confronted with this cold reality, investors fled. Intel's shares plunged 17% Friday and slid an additional 5% Monday," he writes. "Maybe Intel recovers in the months ahead, but the selloff shows how the Trump administration's 'state capitalism' experiment might be fueling significant and growing capital misallocation in the US today."

Further Reading

A credit card rate cap will do more harm than good. — Bloomberg editorial board

Amazon spent a decade trying — and failing — to master the food biz. — Beth Kowitt

Boeing should ignore the siren call of maximizing cash. — Thomas Black

India has begun to re-evaluate China's role as an economic partner. — Mihir Sharma

Giving plum economic jobs to family is a bad look for Indonesia. — Daniel Moss and Karishma Vaswani

Christopher Waller wants to be Fed chair sooooo much. — Jonathan Levin

A lasting Gaza peace needs two elections and one prisoner release. — Marc Champion

Elon Musk has turned Tesla into a blank-check company. — Liam Denning

ICYMI

Someone tried to jailbreak Luigi Mangione.

The son of Iran's Supreme Leader built an empire.

An AI toy exposed 50,000 chat logs with kids.

Lululemon blamed its customers, once again.

Kickers

Being "the fun dad" is a marriage-destroyer.

The pumpernickel bagel is disappearing.

Jimmy Savile shouldn't be a style icon.

Bear poop makes … crappy beer?

Notes: Please send bagels, beer and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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