In Today’s Masters in Trading: Live Today’s show is a risk-awareness primer – not a market call. Yes, I could go on about yesterday’s nothing burger of a Fed announcement. And I could tell you all about all the other headline catalysts grabbing the attention right now. But none of that actually helps us trade better. Instead, I want to focus on a set of tools that help us understand how risk is building or breaking beneath the surface — often before it shows up in equity prices. Last week, I showed how prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi can act as early-warning systems. They don’t tell us exactly what will happen in any given scenario — they show us how sentiment is shifting and where capital is positioning ahead of the crowd. The same idea applies to volatility. Regular viewers of Masters in Trading know we usually follow indexes like the VIX that show us where volatility sits in the broader market. The VVIX does the same thing for volatility itself. It measures how fast fear is changing. Think of it as the volatility of volatility — a gauge of how aggressively traders are pricing protection. A rising VVIX doesn’t automatically mean markets are about to fall. In fact, stocks can continue higher even as risk quietly builds underneath. So what’s the best way to pressure test that risk? All we have to do is look at currencies themselves. Currency markets — especially during periods of stress — often react before equities, particularly in tech-heavy areas like the QQQ. That brings us to the carry trade. Investors borrow in low-yield currencies (like the Japanese yen) to fund risk assets. When that system is stable, risk appetite stays strong. When it starts to crack, currencies are often the first place it shows up. And that’s what we’re seeing take shape right now. Today, confidence in the Japanese bond market is being tested, and concern around a deeper yen dislocation is rising. That dynamic could certainly shift to favor a weaker or stronger yen from here. But I’m here to tell you it doesn’t matter whether the yen weakens or strengthens. This is about awareness and positioning, not calling tops or bottoms. Smart investors can always profit however that dynamic shifts from here. And today’s show is a primer on how we can read the markets and maximize our potential for gains in either scenario. In today’s episode of Masters in Trading LIVE at 11 AM EST, I’ll break down: - How I’m watching JPY vs. QQQ as a carry-trade stress indicator
- What current VVIX behavior is (and isn’t) telling us
- How to spot divergences without jumping to bearish conclusions
- And how traders should think about risk management over prediction
P.S. Are you interested in taking the next step toward options mastery? The Masters in Trading Options Challenge is right here to help you in your journey. The Challenge is where we take everything you’ve learned in my daily LIVEs — fixed risk, thesis-driven exits, laddered entries, defined-duration trades, and emotional discipline — and put it into practice in a structured, step-by-step environment. For two weeks, we walk through the foundations of real options trading the way I learned them on the trading floor. You’ll learn exactly how I think, exactly how I build trades, and exactly how I manage both the winners and the losers. Just click here to check out what the Masters in Trading Options Challenge has in store for you.  | Got a Question? | Be sure to join me live on YouTube and ask me anything. It’s a great way to connect directly with our trading community and make sure you’re getting the insights you need to help build a deeper understanding of the markets. Remember, the creative trader wins, |
No comments:
Post a Comment