Big health stories to watch in 2026

Drug approvals, measles, costly premiums.

Read in browser

Hi, it's Tanaz, Gerry, John and Madison in New York, where we've been reflecting on key moments from 2025 and thinking about what to watch for in 2026. More on that in a moment, but first ... Today's must-reads US managed care stocks were among the worst performers in 2025. New Delhi's nasty air pollution has sparked rare protests against Modi. Major patent lawsuits in the drug industry are headed to trial this year. Get ready There was no shortage of important health headlines in 2025. The Trump administration upended vaccine policies, fired veteran scientists at federal agencies and canceled research grants. China's biotech industry produced more new drugs than the EU. And 10-month-old KJ Muldoon became the first person in history to have his genes custom edited to cure an inherited disease. The new year will bring more surprises. Here are some data points we're going to keep an eye on in 2026: FDA drug approvals. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced massive layoffs last spring, including plans to fire about 3,500 employees at the Food and Drug Administration. Drugmakers and Wall Street fear that deep cuts to the agency will delay US reviews of new medicines. In October, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said they'd spotted a "potentially worrisome" increase in drug approval delays in the third quarter. The FDA says it's rolling out a new program to speed up drug reviews, including plans to hire more than 1,000 new employees. But the agency is also beset by leadership turmoil. Further delays would disappoint patients — and investors — desperate for new treatments. Measles outbreaks. Last year, the US reported its most measles cases in decades. An outbreak in a West Texas Mennonite community spread to neighboring states and led to three deaths. Getting vaccinated is the surest way to prevent the disease, but rates for routine childhood immunizations are declining and could fall further. Under Kennedy's leadership, health officials are looking to make big changes to the childhood immunization schedule. They're expected to recommend that children get fewer shots, a move that could affect what insurers pay for them. US health-care premiums. "Affordability" is dominating the political conversation, and health insurance costs are a big part of that. Affordable Care Act plans are becoming more expensive after Republicans in Congress let Biden-era insurance subsidies expire. Most working-age Americans, though, get their health insurance through employers. The cost of that coverage has been rising relentlessly.  In 2025, the average premium for family coverage, counting both what companies and employees contribute, hit a new record, driven in part by the cost of new therapies like weight-loss drugs. Critics say it's also due to opaque markets and huge variations in prices for similar services, with employers often in the dark about where the billions of dollars they spend on health care actually goes. As long as premiums are rising faster than wages, health costs will continue to squeeze American workers. Investor outlook. Health insurer investors had an awful 2025. The largest company in the sector, UnitedHealth Group, slashed its profit outlook, causing its stock to plummet. Several other large rivals followed. Medical costs are rising faster than the companies anticipated. At the same time, the US government has been pulling back on some payments, like how it pays private Medicare plans for older Americans. This has made it harder for insurers to profit. An index of major insurers lost 29% in 2025, compared with a 16% gain in the broader S&P 500 Index. Investors hope the worst of the turmoil is behind them. But insurers are still facing cuts to federal funding for Medicaid, expiring subsidies for ACA plans and ongoing changes to Medicare. They're also under increased scrutiny over cost-control tactics that doctors and patients say can interfere with care. The year ahead will test whether the companies can navigate these pressures and still deliver the returns shareholders expect. Weight-loss drug sales. In 2025, Eli Lilly's Zepbound became the most popular weight-loss medication in the US, surpassing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which was the first to market. Prescriptions for Lilly's diabetes medication Mounjaro also recently surpassed Novo's Ozempic. In November, Lilly became the first health-care firm to surpass $1 trillion in market value. Meanwhile, Novo suffered from research showing Zepbound is simply a more powerful weight-loss drug than Wegovy and both struggled with the rise of cheaper copycat, or compounded, medications. Investors are hoping that a recent deal with the Trump administration will open the door to lots more customers in 2026. Under the terms of the deal, the drugmakers cut the prices they charge for cash-pay patients and for those on Medicare, which had previously been barred from covering drugs for weight loss alone. Analysts say these Medicare changes could allow roughly 10 million more patients to get the drugs.  That's not all. Health-care costs will play a central role in the 2026 US midterm elections. The Trump administration will likely continue to pressure drug companies to cut prices for Americans, even if it means bigger bills for other nations. AI will grow as a force in health care. Drugmakers will strike more deals to rebuild their pipelines. None of us will be able to say that we're bored at work. — Tanaz Meghjani, Gerry Smith, John Tozzi and Madison Muller What we're reading A drug-resistant and deadly fungus infected at least 7,000 people in the US last year, KTLA reports. And whooping cough cases in the US surpassed 25,000, CNN reports. The UK medical regulator warned against buying black market weight-loss drugs, the Guardian reports. Contact Prognosis Health questions? Have a tip that we should investigate? Contact us at AskPrognosis@bloomberg.net. Follow us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Prognosis newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox. Unsubscribe Bloomberg.com Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10022 |