Wednesday, December 31, 2025

What, me worry?

Bloomberg Evening Briefing Americas
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With 2025 at an end, the numbers show the S&P 500 up more than 16% as the three-year bull market continued unabated. The party kept pace despite well-worn cautions about a looming artificial intelligence bubble and how its explosion would exacerbate the fraught economic reality most Americans already face.

But for now, investors don't appear overly worried. The AI trade broadened as markets rode to riches on the shoulders of the Magnificent 7 and the companies building their data centers. Three of the index's top 10 performers were data storage firms, among the main beneficiaries of the hundreds of billions of dollars pledged by the massive AI cloud service providers and their multibillionaire owners.

Still, off the trading floor some consumers are worried that 2026 might witness trade war chickens coming home to roost, with rising inflation to match rising unemployment and maybe a recession to boot. Affordability is already an overarching complaint, and the new year will bring grim tidings to those Americans who rely on the Affordable Care Act for healthcare. Millions are set to lose access given the expiration of pandemic-era subsidies.

On Wall Street though, as long as the AI gravy train keeps chugging, the outlook for investors might be just fine. For the full picture on equities in the year that was, here are the biggest winners and losers of 2025David E. Rovella

What You Need to Know Today

The Trump administration on Wednesday said applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week to one of the lowest levels this year. Initial claims decreased by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended Dec. 27, according to government data, one of just a handful of readings coming in below 200,000 since early 2024.

It also was the latest in a series of reports from the US Department of Labor, its statistical units and other federal agencies on unemployment, inflation and economic growth to come in significantly more positive than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The US has seen sluggish hiring through much of 2025, which has eroded Americans' views of their job prospects. Meantime, the unemployment rate has climbed to a four-year high of 4.6%. A report from the Conference Board last week showed more Americans think jobs are hard to get, and the share saying jobs are plentiful is decreasing. Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain elevated throughout 2026.

Markets Wrap
Santa Claus Rally? Not So Much.
Stocks and bonds extended a stretch of post-Christmas losses along with declines for gold and silver.

China
Xi Touts Tech Wins in Triumphant Speech
It was the Chinese leader's most upbeat New Year's Eve address in years, coming after China overcame a multitude of challenges to underscore its status as a global superpower.

Mortgage rates in the US dropped for a third straight week, ending 2025 at their lowest point for the year. The average for 30-year, fixed loans was 6.15%, down from 6.18% last week.

Rates have inched lower over the past few months, luring some house hunters into the market. A measure of contracts to buy resale homes climbed in November to the highest level since early 2023, the National Association of Realtors reported this week. It was the fourth straight monthly increase.

"If this momentum continues into the peak buying season of 2026, we could see much stronger sales figures than we saw for much of 2025," said Joel Berner, senior economist for Realtor.com.

Currencies
US Dollar Has Its Worst Year Since 2017
With at least two central bank rate reductions priced in for 2026, America's policy path diverges from some developed peers, further dimming the greenback's appeal.

More bond trouble for Milei. With just five trading days left ahead of a crucial Jan. 9 debt deadline, Argentina's Treasury only has $1.9 billion of the $4.3 billion it owes despite recent efforts to bolster the country's stash of dollars.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo still has options. They include a possible repurchase agreement (effectively a loan) with Wall Street banks, or potentially tapping Argentina's $20 billion swap line with the US Treasury, courtesy of President Javier Milei's friend in the White House. 

Breaking News
Trump Retreats From Militarizing Some US Cities Amid Court Defeats
The Republican falsely claimed there was rising crime in Democratic-run cities where it had been falling for years to justify an unprecedented use of soldiers on American streets.

Finnish authorities took control of a vessel suspected of causing damage to a telecommunications cable, launching a criminal investigation into the latest reported incident affecting subsea links in the Baltic Sea. 

The Finnish Border Guard intercepted the ship Wednesday after a fault was detected in a cable between Helsinki and Tallinn, Estonia, and the vessel's anchor chain was found to be lowered into the sea. Police took into custody 14 crew members, including citizens of Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and are in contact with the ship's flag state, according to a report from state-owned broadcaster YLE.

There's been a rash of such incidents involving damage to undersea cables, power connections and gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, which is bordered by Russia and eight other northern European countries. Many have involved ships dragging their anchors on the seabed. While no state actor has been directly implicated, many experts allege the trend is part of a low-intensity "hybrid war" being waged by the Kremlin.

War
Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes on Black Sea Ports
In December, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets hit a monthly record. Russia, meanwhile, has continued to target energy and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine.

JPMorgan is crying foul over the $74 million legal tab of convicted fraudster Charlie Javice. Despite her having hoodwinked the bank as part of a $175 million deal, it's the Wall Street giant that had to pay her attorneys.

According to an unsealed court filing, that legal bill allegedly included more than $5 million for lawyers and other staff who simply attended her fraud trial—even on days court wasn't in session. The bank complained Javice had as many as 16 to 29 lawyers and other legal professionals in court for every day of her trial, billing an average of $360,000 a day for six weeks.

Charlie Javice  Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The bank focused much of its ire on Javice's largest law firms, including Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan. JPMorgan said the firms sought "millions more for patently unreasonable fees and expenses that constitute clear abuse." A Quinn Emanuel spokesman responded that "JPMorgan is trying to walk away from its contractual obligation to pay the remainder of Ms. Javice's legal bills."


Weather & Science
The Price Honeybees May Pay for Biofuel
Financial incentives to shrink the carbon footprint of air travel could turbocharge the destruction of grasslands critical to pollination.

What You'll Need to Know Tomorrow

Canada
Stocks Set a Record for Records in a "Jaw-Dropping" Year
Iran
Protests Spread Beyond Tehran in Fourth Day of Clashes
India
Delhi's Worst Air in Years Fuels Anger and Test for Modi
Labor
Trump Administration Drops Case Against Elon Musk's SpaceX
Trump 2.0
Trump Administration Lifts Sanctions Tied to Spyware Allegedly Used on Americans
Bloomberg Opinion
Trump Has No Choice But to Break His $2 Gas Promise
Bloomberg Podcast
Weary Consumers With Money Are Paying Extra to Save Time

For Your Commute

Bloomberg Opinion
Books to Prepare You for Tech's Future
Trillions of dollars hang in the balance when it comes to two questions that loom large over 2026. "Will the artificial intelligence bubble burst?" and "Will China beat the US?"

Bloomberg Evening Briefing Americas will return on Jan. 2.

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