Gathering storm clouds

Trump's moves look like prelude to something more muscular

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. Another tense weekend for Venezuela watchers, another round of brinkmanship that ultimately fizzled. US President Donald Trump jolted the region Saturday, telling airlines to treat Venezuelan airspace as closed. It looked like a prelude to something more muscular against Nicolás Maduro's government. Caracas fired back within hours, calling Trump's statement an "explicit threat of force" and saying the no-fly orders meant the US had effectively suspended its weekly deportation flights to the South American nation. Passengers wait at check-in counters at Simon Bolivar International Airport in Maiquetía, Venezuela, on Thursday. Source: Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images That would end an agreement that quietly repatriated thousands of Venezuelans this year and which stood as one of the last signs of basic cooperation between the two governments — even as insults were traded and a US aircraft carrier strike group was deployed off Venezuela's coast. Trump keeps hinting at possible US operations on Venezuelan soil but hasn't said what that would look like nor when, if ever, he'd pull the trigger. Despite the ominous signals, the weekend passed without material change. Trump yesterday downplayed his airspace comments, along with Republican concerns around a fatal US strike on a purported drug-running boat in the Caribbean. He confirmed reports he'd spoken with Maduro recently but declined to say how it went. At this point, Chevron may be the closest thing to a functioning bilateral agreement: The Houston-based company continues to pump oil in Venezuela without major disruption. Adding to the political theater, opposition leader María Corina Machado is expected to leave her hiding spot in Venezuela and head to Norway in the coming days to receive her Nobel Peace Prize, a moment Maduro would surely prefer not to see celebrated on the world stage. For now, Venezuelans are doing what they always do in moments like this, working around the uncertainty and leaning into the Christmas season while the geopolitical storm clouds swirl overhead. Machado during a campaign rally in Barinas, Venezuela, in July 2024. Photographer: Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads US and Ukrainian negotiators said they had productive discussions about a framework for a peace deal with Russia, but there was no final breakthrough in the Florida meeting that was likely the last chance for Kyiv to sway special envoy Steve Witkoff before he leads a US delegation for talks in Moscow this week. India, meanwhile, plans to start negotiations toward the purchase of Russian fighter jets and a missile-defense shield during President Vladimir Putin's visit this week, sources say. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, center left, flanked by Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Hallandale Beach yesterday. Photographer: Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is set to introduce sweeping economic reforms in India's upcoming parliament session as part of a plan to attract foreign investment and boost growth. Buoyed by a landslide electoral win in a key state poll, Modi aims to transform the South Asian nation into a $10 trillion developed economy by 2047, which would cement his legacy as one of India's most consequential reformers. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's coalition clinched only one seat despite fielding 22 candidates in Saturday's election in Borneo's Sabah state, highlighting the bloc's continued struggle to gain a foothold in the east of the country. Anwar is grappling with mounting discontent with the central government among voters in Borneo, who are likely to be crucial for the outcome of the next national election, due by early 2028. Iran's foreign minister discussed his country's nuclear program and Israel's actions in the Middle East with his Turkish counterpart yesterday. Abbas Araghchi accused Israel of repeatedly violating the Gaza ceasefire and called for action to halt its strikes on Lebanon and Syria, while Turkey's Hakan Fidan said "Israel's expansionism is the No. 1 security threat for the region." A banner featuring symbolic images of the Natanz nuclear-enrichment facility on a government building in Tehran, Iran, on Aug. 28. Photographer: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Getty Images A pro-Washington candidate backed by Trump took an early lead in yesterday's presidential election in Honduras. With 40% of ballots tallied, Nasry Asfura, a conservative former mayor of the capital Tegucigalpa, led Salvador Nasralla, a former sportscaster and vice-president, while ruling-party candidate Rixi Moncada trailed in third place. Trump has said he would refuse to work with either Nasralla or Moncada. Taiwan plans to buy its first weapons for a major air-defense system announced less than two months ago, underscoring Taipei's urgency to get the program online as China escalates its military intimidation. Trump said he has decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair after making clear he expects his nominee to deliver interest-rate cuts. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has submitted a request for a pardon from charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust for which he was indicted six years ago, following repeated calls by Trump for President Isaac Herzog to exonerate him. Polish President Karol Nawrocki called off a planned meeting with Viktor Orban after the Hungarian prime minister met with Putin on Friday, highlighting his status as one of the most Kremlin-friendly leaders in the European Union. Orban and Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow on Friday. Photographer: Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day China's factory activity contracted again last month, extending its streak of declines to a record as the country's economic slowdown deepens. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.2, remaining below the 50 mark that separates growth and contraction for an eighth month. The data offer an early glimpse of how the world's second-biggest economy is coping with global trade turbulence and an unprecedented decline in investment. And Finally Haiti doesn't manufacture weapons and has been under an arms embargo since 2022. Yet it's awash in guns used by the gangs that control more than 85% of the capital Port-au-Prince. The Government Accountability Office in Washington says that 90% of all weapons used in a crime in Haiti were sourced in the US. According to Jonathan Lowy, president of Global Action on Gun Violence, the fact that America is both a major manufacturer and seller of small arms and has some of the weakest gun laws in the world creates a "perfect storm" that facilitates the weapons trafficking. Debris in a neighborhood of Port-au-Prince that was attacked by gangs in September. Photographer: Clarens Siffroy/AFP/Getty Images Thanks to everyone who answered Friday's quiz question, and congratulations to Marc Weinberg, who was first to correctly identify the Philippines as the country where the president took a swipe at his sister after she publicly accused him of using illegal drugs. More from Bloomberg Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries Next China for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it's going next Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com We're improving your newsletter experience and we'd love your feedback. If something looks off, help us by reporting it here. 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