But that's not the most interesting part of all this…
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It's currently trading for under $20…
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Marc Lichtenfeld Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club
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Today's editorial pick for you
SoundHound AI (SOUN) Stock's Notorious Volatility Hides a Clear Setup
Posted On Dec 15, 2025 by Joshua Enomoto
Based purely on market performance, SoundHound AI (NASDAQ:SOUN) wouldn't necessarily strike anyone as a potentially transformational enterprise. Since the start of the year, SOUN stock lost more than 41% of equity value, a stunning erosion of sentiment. However, the red ink is incredibly unflattering, as prior to the tech sector meltdown that impacted SOUN, the security was on an impressive run.
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Stated differently, like many other high-beta entities, when the good times roll, few can keep pace with SOUN stock. Fundamentally, Wall Street is generally excited about the upside potential. As a pure-play conversational AI company, SoundHound's core product is real-time voice understanding — an innovation that extends far beyond chatbots and generic large language models.
Essentially, SoundHound has built systems that can understand spoken language instantly while handling interruptions, corrections and multi-part commands. Even better, the underlying AI mechanism can operate in noisy, dynamic environments and work offline or on-device when needed. Thanks to the tech's broad utility, SoundHound has direct relevance toward the automotive market, restaurants/drive-thrus, appliances, call centers and embedded systems.
Effectively, the company's tech sits on a different layer of the AI stack, one where latency, reliability and efficiency concerns are paramount. SoundHound is designed to thrive where typing is cumbersome, touchscreen options are limited and voice represents the natural interface.
Despite the huge potential, SOUN stock is hampered by volatility. Broader fundamental concerns, such as competition from big tech, enterprise sales cycles and execution risk apply tremendous pressure on the business. In addition, margins may suffer from compressive shocks, an underlying concern among pure-play AI enterprises.
Still, there may be a method to the madness — and it all starts with the understanding that the equities market is a multiverse.
Shifting Away from Single Path Paradigms
For older millennials and any generation above this age bracket, viewing the market through the lens of a single path domain is comfortable and intuitive. Blockbuster movies like "Star Wars" focused on one character against one evil entity within one continuous timeline. Even in popular franchises like "Terminator" — where the concept of time travel necessarily invokes multiple realities — the narrative focused on a central moral arc: humanity's struggle against the machines.
However, Generation Z grew up watching films that explicitly integrated the multiverse. Thanks to films based on the Marvel Comics universe, young viewers have been exposed to the concept of multiple timelines and what-if scenarios. For this and emerging generations, multi-path domains represent the holistic understanding of reality.
In fact, Wall Street agrees with Gen Z. It was hidden in plain sight this whole time.
While most people consider options to be synthetic ownership of exposure (to the underlying security), at a much deeper level, it represents the market's mechanism for the pricing of alternate realities — more precisely, the pricing of unrealized states of the world. Thus, when an options trade goes bad, it didn't just expire in the abstract sense. Rather, that timeline of an alternate reality was effectively extinguished.
Put another way, when investors ask where SOUN stock is going, it's an understandable question, but it's also the wrong question. Such thinking assumes a continuous moral framework, if you will, where the addition of time only magnifies collective intent.
In contrast, the smart inquiry is to ask where SOUN stock stops going. That implies transition, and it also implies that, in a different reality, even the most aggressive buyers are tempted to become sellers. At that fulcrum, we're no longer talking about the intensification of the prior moral directive. Instead, we are talking about a reversal of expectations — a new reality, a multiverse.
But rather than a philosophical musing, multi-path domains offer a practical benefit as they force traders to think distributionally.
Aligning SOUN Stock to the Correct Paradigm
Under a standard analytical framework, price or value is plotted chronologically, which is the most intuitive manner to view transitions. Such an approach, though, is blind to probabilistic structure, which is a flaw that distributional analysis seeks to correct.
If we were to view SOUN stock across one 10-week cycle, it would hardly be instructive because the dynamism of the security would likely change from week to week. However, if we stacked multiple 10-week cycles in a distributional analysis, a probabilistic shape would emerge. Specifically, certain price levels — when aligned with a static anchor or starting point — would be more represented than others.
To use more scientific language, probability density in some price levels would be more elevated. At the same time, the probability density of one-off aberrations would be neutralized in the distribution because of their lack of representation. What should emerge, then, is a "tangible" image of probabilistic mass.
Specifically for SoundHound, the distribution of its 10-week trials since the company's public market debut would mostly range between $11.40 and $12.20 (assuming an anchor price of $11.65, Friday's close). Further, price clustering would likely be predominant at $11.78.
However, when SOUN stock is structured in a 3-7-D formation — three up weeks, seven down weeks, with an overall downward slope — the 10-week distribution ranges between $11.10 and $14.35. Moreover, price clustering would likely occur at $13.10.
Interestingly, from this peak level, probability density drops exponentially. At the $14 level, density is down almost to the bare bones. That doesn't mean that on a terminal basis, SOUN stock is incapable of reaching $14 over the next 10 weeks. However, the chances of doing so sustainably are limited.
While it would make sense to then go for a February-month options trade, the lack of volume currently prevents this wager from being possible. Therefore, the most aggressive but rational idea may be the 12/13 bull call spread expiring Jan. 16, 2026. If SOUN stock rises through the second-leg strike ($13) at expiration, the maximum payout stands at over 194%.
Of course, the risk is that the above distributional projection must arrive sooner rather than later. If you can accept this proposition, the above trade could be awfully enticing.
Disclosure: The author held a long position in SOUN stock.
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