Sometimes the best opportunities hide in plain sight...
A $95 billion global icon — the undisputed king of athletic footwear for four decades — has been absolutely hammered over the past three years.
Down 64% from all-time highs, now trading at prices not seen since 2018.
While retail traders panic-sold the lows, here's what's actually happening behind the scenes:
✅ 25 out of 27 analysts: Buy rating
✅ Average price target: $83.30 (29% upside from ~$64)
✅ Institutional giants accumulating: Norges Bank, Loomis Sayles loading up at current levels
✅ Dividend just raised: 3% increase — 53 consecutive years of payouts
✅ Q1 FY26 earnings: Beat estimates by 81% ($0.49 vs $0.27 expected)
✅ Earnings catalyst: December 18 (17 days away)
The narrative that crushed this stock:
Former CEO pivoted hard to digital/direct-to-consumer during COVID. Made sense then. But when the world reopened, they'd abandoned wholesale partners, over-relied on classic silhouettes (Air Force 1s, Dunks), and lost the innovation edge. Competitors filled the void.
Stock cratered. Market cap collapsed from $281B to $95B.
What actually changed:
In October 2024, the board made a bold move — they brought back a 32-year company veteran who started as an intern and worked his way up to President. He came out of retirement specifically for this turnaround.
His first year has been about ripping out the old playbook:
- Rebuilding wholesale relationships that were severed
- Restructuring around sport-specific innovation (not lifestyle)
- Cutting $2B+ in costs while protecting the brand
- Preparing for the biggest marketing moment in years...
The catalyst everyone's watching:
The 2026 FIFA World Cup — hosted across the US, Canada, and Mexico — represents the largest sporting event in history. 48 teams. 104 matches. 6 billion projected viewers.
This company sponsors 6 of the top 10 FIFA-ranked teams including USA, Brazil, England, France, Portugal, and the Netherlands.
Analysts estimate this single event could drive $1.3 billion in incremental revenue.
And they've earmarked a record $4.9 billion marketing budget for fiscal 2026 to capitalize on it.
The fundamentals beneath the fear:
- Balance sheet: $10.4B cash, minimal debt
- Brand power: Still #1 globally in athletic footwear market share
- Dividend yield: 2.6% with 53 years of consecutive payments
- Return on equity: 21.16% — still highly profitable
- NFL deal: Just extended through 2038
The technical setup:
After falling 64% from November 2021 highs, the stock has been building a base:
- RSI repeatedly hitting oversold territory (below 30)
- Key support held at $52-55 zone
- Bullish RSI divergence forming — price making lower lows while momentum stabilizes
- Earnings December 18 could be the inflection point
Risk-reward profile: Downside to 52-week low (~$52) is ~19%. Upside to consensus target ($83) is 29%.
That's roughly 1.5:1 in your favor — with a major catalyst just 17 days away.
Read The Full Analysis: Is This Turnaround Setup Worth Watching?
The market has priced this company like the turnaround will fail. Meanwhile, a 32-year insider came out of retirement because he believes it won't.
Institutional money is quietly accumulating. The World Cup tailwind is approaching. And December 18 earnings will show whether the "Win Now" strategy is gaining traction.
The question is whether you'll be watching before the narrative shifts — or chasing after.
To your success,
Direction Alerts
P.S. When an iconic brand trades 64% below its highs, a legendary insider returns from retirement to lead the turnaround, and the biggest sporting event in history is 7 months away... you're either witnessing a value trap or a generational setup. The Q1 beat (+81% vs estimates) suggests which one.
Discover Which Global Brand Is Setting Up for Reversal
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