| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, the biblical flood of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. I spent my Turkey Day thinking about ducks. The lame kind. It's considered a truism that presidents make their mark during the first two years in office, before the midterm elections almost invariably weaken his party in Congress. (President Joe Biden was an exception that proves the rule.) But what of those who serve a second term? In my years on the planet, almost all of them have been afflicted by scandal or major missteps the second time around: Richard Nixon for crimes that seem almost quaint today; Ronald Reagan for Iran-Contra; Bill Clinton for a blue dress; George W. Bush for the Forever Wars. Only Barack Obama avoided a calamity but, really, what's left of his accomplishments between 2013 and 2015? The Iran nuclear deal (now defunct), the Climate Action Plan (ditto), DACA (ditto). Diplomatic relations with Cuba is hardly something to hang your hat on. But the idea that second terms are inevitably goose eggs ignores some history. Nixon ended the war in Vietnam and created the Environmental Protection Agency. Reagan took a walk in the woods that put a the biggest nail in the USSR's coffin. George W. Bush, well, activated Medicare Part D. Which brings up the enigma of Donald Trump. His nonconsecutive second term began like a firestorm: 215 executive orders (Gulf of 'Merica, brah!); letting the richest man in the world cosplay as a modern-day doge; appointing a parasitic worm-man to dismantle America's public health system; bombing Venezuelan drug runners while preparing his Department of War to invade Greenland; solving the mystery of exploding straws — the list is almost endless. Hardly the record of a lame duck, right? All of a sudden, maybe it is. "For Republicans, November was bookended by two ominous developments: Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation and the party's resounding defeats in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races," writes Ronald Brownstein. "With Trump's standing now so diminished in so many places, his best chance of holding on to his congressional majority may be to let more Republicans test the limits of his tolerance for dissent." Failing in gubernatorial races isn't great, but it is the loss of MTG that's really going to hurt. "Republicans in her district told me they are worried her departure exposes cracks in the MAGA movement and leaves the GOP with a shrinking congressional margin," writes Mary Ellen Klas. "Greene used her resignation to bring home to her fellow MAGA Republicans the destabilizing consequences of the president's intolerance for any dissent. She had the courage to leave her 'abuser.' The question now is whether anyone else will follow her lead." A broader rebellion may already be brewing. "Trump built the MAGA movement on a heterodox, us-versus-them ideology and on his blue-collar billionaire brand. This populist-nationalist coalition powered Trump to the White House, twice. Now, the relationship between MAGA and Trump is showing signs of strain," writes Nia-Malika Henderson. "The rift has exposed a factionalized MAGA, with softening enthusiasm among many of Trump's biggest boosters, who had been bound together by their singular belief in the president … this fracturing complicates Trump's agenda and poses a new challenge as he navigates the lame-duck era of his presidency." While MTG was jumping ship, a true loyalist was proving that excess is not a political virtue. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem put herself at the center of $200 million PSA campaign that's a bizarre mix of Yellowstone, Sicario, North by Northwest and Wojnarowicz. Man oh man, grab the popcorn and give it a watch!  Giddyup! Source: Instagram "Some GOP lawmakers are also dismayed at Noem's broader financial management of DHS, and criticized her agency this summer for moving money from other accounts to fund ICE's expensive mass deportation program," writes Patricia Lopez. "One committee report noted that 'allowing operations to significantly exceed available resources is wholly irresponsible and perpetuates fiscal mismanagement.'" One obvious way Team Trump can get back on track is to improve healthcare. That's why the president unveiled his new Affordable Care Act reforms to great fanfare on Monday. Just kidding! After all the hoo-ha, it was cancelled at the last minute, under pressure from "Republicans who were caught off guard," reported Politico. The Editorial Board is not impressed. "Republicans must deliver on a health-care compromise, lest millions of Americans get stuck with big bills come January. At issue is the expiration of Covid-era benefits for Affordable Care Act enrollees," write the editors. "Paramount should be giving consumers more choice, including those in the much larger employer-sponsored market. Gradually allowing more flexibility to pick a health plan — be it short-term coverage or a public option — should increase competition and improve care without destabilizing the market." A MAGA meltdown seems like a gift to a trio of potential 2028 Democratic frontrunners: California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. But history can be unkind to their sort. "There's a reason George W. Bush was the last governor to win the White House: In the 25-plus years since, governors have proven incapable of weathering the intense public scrutiny and navigating the media barrage of gotcha questions that accompany running for president." writes David M. Drucker. "Governors might enjoy the freedom to maneuver, politically and legislatively, without the biblical flood of questions from reporters. But it's cost them valuable experience dealing with pressure from an often-hostile media that picks apart every nook and cranny of a candidate's personal life ... while posing sometimes inane questions that are nonetheless damaging if not parried properly." Perhaps they could just follow Trump's lead and parry the inane press with stream-of-consciousness gibberish about toilet water, deadly windmills and knocking the crap out of tomatoes. If it quacks like a lame duck ... Bonus Ducks on the Wall Reading: What's the World Got in Store ? - Happy third birthday, ChatGPT, Nov. 30: Agentic AI Could Improve Everything or Cascade Into Doom — Gideon Lichfield
- US PCE, Dec. 5: Your Turkey Is Cheaper This Thanksgiving. That's About It. — Justin Fox
- U of Michigan current conditions, Dec. 5: The 'Greenspan Put' Beats a Correction, Once Again — John Authers
Among the list of second-term triumphs, we can add the current president's most astonishing feat: Destroying the rule of law. Consider his Truth Social post responding to Democratic members of Congress — all veterans of the military or intelligence agencies — who made an ad informing current service members: "You can refuse illegal orders." "For weeks, military service personnel have been seeking outside legal counsel about orders they've received, especially the US strikes against alleged drug boats and the military deployments to American cities," Mary Ellen writes. "If Trump is disturbed by the reaction to his decisions, he should be. But the best response is not to seemingly call for the execution of members of Congress, but to reconsider how he ought to use the world's most powerful military." Trump's unapologetic use of the military is just part of a larger cycle, says Noah Feldman. "The most astonishing feature of Donald Trump's decade as one of the most dominant figures in American politics is his ability to make the unthinkable seem not only thinkable, but possible," Noah writes. "First, Trump floats the idea of breaking some fundamental principle of politics — something so basic to eighth-grade civics and to our collective political imagination that it seems laughable. Then, supporters ... start insisting that it is not only possible but inevitable. The rest of us — whether we are constitutional law professors (guilty), pundits (ditto), or simply committed citizens — start talking about the outrage." Yeah, Americans love to debate politics, it's a benefit of living in a free society. But a constructive exchange of views is pretty impossible if one side follows a guy who insists shoplifting is legal in California and we're being overrun by Congolese prisoners. "In the most troubling part of this process, the outrage and ensuing debate themselves become a powerful normalizing force," adds Noah. "The debate over what was once unthinkable begins to seem like an ordinary and legitimate political argument, one in which we are accustomed to each side winning occasionally, either through elections or in court. And therein lies the subtle danger: What we once considered unthinkable has gradually become part of our political imagination." A president serving a third term was also unthinkable, until Trump started throwing the unconstitutional idea around with a bunch of folks who love the Second Amendment. Let's hope the idea doesn't become normalized: It would shred the Constitution, upend 80 years of political tradition, and be very confusing for humble newsletter writers on the hunt for lame ducks. Note: Please send Duck Soup and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net | 
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