Crypto News: The Forecast: Democrats in the wilderness

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This week we're looking at upcoming off-year elections in the US, the downsides of AI translation when you travel, the chances that the Supreme Court deems Trump's tariffs illegal, and more.

Democrats in the Wilderness

In an off-election year, US political junkies have few places to look for signals about where the two parties are headed. The first (and only) opportunity in 2025 for this reading of the tea leaves happens on Tuesday, when voters in New Jersey and Virginia will elect a new governor and New York City residents will vote for a new mayor.

Anyone looking for a clear takeaway from these contests may be disappointed.

New York is on the verge of electing Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist in the vein of Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — the type of progressive whose policies are unappealing to many of the centrist and independent voters needed to win national elections.

The New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, by contrast, are test cases for another type of Democratic candidate: the centrist, experienced, national-security-minded female politician.

The race in New Jersey has tightened in the past few weeks between Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, as voters express dismay over high electricity bills and general affordability issues under the state's current Democratic governor. Republicans would love to eke out a victory there — even as polls narrowly favor Sherrill — after President Donald Trump endorsed Ciattarelli and called him "100% (PLUS!)" on the MAGA agenda.

In Virginia, Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger looks likely to prevail over the Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The huge number of federal workers in Northern Virginia, frustrated by the government shutdown and the DOGE cuts, gave Spanberger a built-in constituency. And she's made sure to talk about issues key to local voters — inflation, schools, health care — rather than solely going with an anti-Trump message. If Democrats lose one of these races, expect even more hand-wringing over the party's tarnished national brand and its inability to capitalize on Trump's unpopularity.

Convincing wins by Spanberger and Sherrill would be seen by centrist Democrats as vindication of their experience-plus-cost-of-living approach. But don't expect the progressive wing of the party to agree; they see in Mamdani an authenticity and a populist economic message that resonates with many voters.

This slate of elections is unlikely to resolve this divide. What seems most evident is that voters continue to reward politicians of both parties who seem authentic and speak about the issues that pertain to their daily lives — rather than supporting a singular, cookie-cutter type of candidate. Meanwhile, the Democrats just can't seem to escape the ideological wilderness.

— Nancy Cook, Bloomberg News

Predictions

Global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall 10% by 2035, compared with 1990 levels, according to the UN. It's the first time the body has forecast a decline, though it emphasizes the decline is "still not fast enough." — Laura Millan and John Ainger, Bloomberg Green

"Don't bet on a millionaire exodus if Mamdani wins." "Even as New York can't live without its rich people, many of its rich people can't live without New York." — Ben Steverman and Emily Flitter, Bloomberg Businessweek + Wealth (There is also a prediction market on this!)

European populism isn't going anywhere. This week's Dutch election was a win for centrists and for the "abundance" agenda, but hardly fatal for the far right. "There's still a risk that Europe's biggest economies will be piloted (or co-piloted) by hardline anti-immigrant parties before the end of the decade." — Lionel Laurent, Bloomberg Opinion

"As the economic significance of AI becomes clearer, the valuations… of AI-linked stocks will fall." That's the upshot of a series of papers in financial economics that suggest investors may sometimes pay more for uncertain earnings growth. — Justin Fox, Bloomberg Opinion

A dotcom-like bust wouldn't be all bad. Bret Taylor, chairman of OpenAI, is focused on avoiding the mistakes of the 1990s, but also says a certain amount of "natural creative destruction" is healthy. — Austin Carr, Bloomberg Businessweek

Also, check out Businessweek's 24 AI startups to watch in 2026.

What Are the Chances...

39%: The chances on Polymarket that the Supreme Court sides with the Trump administration on tariffs, overturning a lower court's ruling that they exceeded the president's authority. (Forecast as of 5 p.m. ET on Friday Oct. 31.) In the meantime, Wall Street banks are arranging bets on the tariffs being struck down.

Keep an Eye On

AirPods That Translate Won't Make Travel Better

Some of the best dishes I've ever eaten abroad showed up after I accidentally nodded yes when I meant no to a waiter listing specials faster than an auctioneer. It's happened less and less since Google made it possible to translate a photo of a menu in real time, and my anecdotes have suffered.

I thought of that, among other translation mishaps, when I read about the latest Apple AirPods, which can translate foreign languages in real time. A person speaks to you in English, French, German, Portuguese or Spanish (with more languages on the way), and Siri repeats what was said in your native tongue. It's such an incredible inflection point for futuristic personal tech, with the potential to open up the world in ways humans have been dreaming about for millennia. And yet I feel sad for how much we may lose, especially when traveling abroad.

Without understanding, we observe more closely, we read physical cues. We slow down. We watch what they do so that we can copy it. We make mistakes, embracing an increasingly rare experience in our day-to-day: failure.

So few opportunities for not knowing remain. As we become more reliant on technology and artificial intelligence to provide us with answers, there are fewer chances to be inexpert. It is nice, but not good, to be constantly reassured that we are right, smart and have all the answers. Some things in life should be difficult.

— Madison Darbyshire, Bloomberg Weekend

Read: What We Lose When Nothing Is Lost in Translation

Week Ahead

Sunday: OPEC+ meets.

Monday: Indonesia and Pakistan report CPI.

Tuesday: The US holds several off-year elections; the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates; Aramco and BP report earnings; Bloomberg hosts the Future Investor: Finding the Opportunities meeting in Houston and the Bloomberg Green at COP30 event in Sao Paulo.

Wednesday: The US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of many of Trump's tariffs; Bloomberg's Global Credit Forum is held in Tokyo to discuss credit markets.

Thursday: The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged; the 30th UN climate conference begins in Belém, Brazil, through Nov. 21; India's eastern state of Bihar holds elections; Tesla holds its annual meeting, including a vote on Elon Musk's pay package.

Friday: Canada reports unemployment; Mexico reports CPI; the Philippines reports GDP.