A lot of folks are comparing this market to the run-up before the Dot-Com bust in the mid- to late-90s.
I get why it feels that way — prices are strong and the headlines are loud. But based on what I laid out in today's Opening Playbook Roundtable, I think we're in a different environment than 1999/2000.
First, Profits.
The leaders today are putting up record earnings. Names like NVIDIA and Microsoft aren't just “story stocks” — they're producing real cash flow.
That matters. In the late ‘90s, the market's darlings were often pre-profit or barely profitable. Today's leadership has fat margins and consistent results.
Second, Valuations
We can argue about what's “cheap,” but we aren't seeing nosebleed P/Es across the board like 53, 84, 100 on the marquee names.
On the show, I walked through examples with mid-20s P/Es and 35%–50% profit margins.
That's a long way from the single-digit margins (or negative) we saw on many “must-own” names back before what would become the DotCom Bust. Strong price action plus healthy fundamentals is a very different mix from pure hype.
So what do I do with that view? I keep it simple and practical:
- I stay constructively bullish into Q4. When the market is rewarding earnings and cash flow, I want to be participating — not trying to top-tick the next scare headline.
- I prefer defined-risk structures for most entries. That lets me benefit from strength without pretending I can predict every wiggle. If I'm wrong, the risk is small and known.
- I don't chase every daylight pop. Historically, a lot of the big extensions happen overnight. I'd rather have structures that don't require perfect intraday timing to work.
None of this is a promise that we won't correct. We will — at some point.
The key, for me, is to ride real strength backed by real numbers and manage risk like an adult. If we keep printing profits and margins at these levels, I want my capital aligned with that.
If the facts change, I'll change with them.
At the end of the day, calling this “Dot-Com 2.0” makes for a catchy line. But when I look at earnings, margins, and valuation, I see a market that — while not cheap — looks more grounded than 1999.
That's why I'm staying engaged and using structures that let me participate without pretending it's all upside.
— Nate Tucci
P.S. See setups like this and much more every weekday at 10am and 3:30pm Eastern on Opening Playbook & Closing Playbook. Don't miss it!
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