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Back-to-School Shopping Hits $40B: 3 Retail Stocks to Watch Now
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 9/3/2025.
Key Points
- Back-to-school shopping is projected to hit $40 billion in 2025, a key indicator of consumer confidence and economic health.
- Walmart and Costco are capitalizing on value-driven demand, benefiting from omnichannel growth and membership retention.
- Lululemon’s upcoming earnings will reveal how resilient premium retail remains amid rising economic pressure.
Back-to-school shopping may not rival the holiday season for retailers, but it ranks a close second. Beyond pencils and backpacks, this period offers an early read on consumer spending trends heading into year-end.
According to Statista, Americans plan to spend around $40 billion this season—about $858 per household on school supplies alone.
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Not all retail stocks will benefit equally. Pricing power, business model and brand appeal separate the leaders from the rest. Here are three blue-chip names—Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) and Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU)—that are earning top marks this season.
Walmart Continues to Capture Everyday Spending
Walmart's second-quarter 2026 earnings highlighted a strong back-to-school performance. President and CEO Doug McMillon said the company felt good "in terms of units and dollars sold and inventory sell-through." Key school-supply kits were priced under $65, lower than last year.
E-commerce was a major bright spot, with double-digit growth. Management noted that Walmart's omnichannel strategy is playing a critical role in driving sales.
Despite these wins, WMT stock is up just over 9% in 2025. Lower-income shoppers remain under pressure, but Walmart benefits from the "trading down" effect—higher-income consumers seeking value—which supports same-store sales growth and stable margins.
Costco's Membership Model Keeps Revenue Strong
Costco may not be the first name that comes to mind for back-to-school essentials, but its bulk-buying model offers both convenience and savings. Whether you're shopping for dorm room basics, after-school snacks or teacher supplies, Costco delivers value. An average $830 spend this season would exceed the $80 membership fee more than tenfold.
Seasonal spikes drive traffic, new memberships and strong renewal rates. With North American renewal rates above 90%—which account for the majority of operating income—even modest membership gains can have an outsized impact on profitability.
COST stock is up 3.6% year-to-date. As long as the company converts seasonal shoppers into long-term members, Costco could see continued upside.
Lululemon Will Be a Barometer of Premium Lifestyle Spending
Athleisure has become a wardrobe staple for many students, putting Lululemon in the spotlight this back-to-school season.
LULU stock is down 48% year-to-date, as increasing competition has pressured its premium positioning. However, the shares are up about 1% over the last month, hinting at a possible rebound.
Investors will be watching Lululemon's earnings release on September 4 to see if it can maintain revenue and earnings growth as consumers look for value beyond the label.
Serving a more affluent demographic that's less sensitive to inflation and rising rates, Lululemon could still deliver solid year-over-year performance if it holds its premium appeal.
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