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Palantir's Commercial Growth Story Is Just Getting Started
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 9/15/2025.
Key Points
- Palantir’s commercial revenue growth is accelerating and outpacing its government business.
- The company’s software is positioned as an operating system for AI-driven decision-making.
- Valuation concerns and rising competition raise questions about long-term growth.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) shares have fallen more than 3% in the 30 days ending September 12. While modest compared to the over 30% slump earlier this year, the recent decline may give bulls pause as the broader market hits fresh all-time highs.
Not all the news is bearish. Many software companies would envy Palantir's latest earnings, which boasted a Rule of 40 score of 94%, underscoring that Palantir is delivering profitable growth.
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This growth stems from both its established government business and its expanding commercial division. Notably, the commercial segment has outpaced government revenue growth in recent quarters:
- February 2025 – Commercial revenue of $214 million was up 64% year-over-year (YOY) and 20% from the prior quarter.
- May 2025 – Commercial revenue of $255 million was up 71% YOY and 19% from the prior quarter.
- August 2025 – Commercial revenue of $306 million was up 93% YOY and 20% sequentially.
These figures demonstrate that commercial revenue growth is accelerating both in dollars and percentage terms, reinforcing Palantir's vision of becoming "the leading software provider for data-driven decision-making."
The Bull Case: Palantir as an Operating System
Palantir's first-mover advantage with the U.S. government was on display when it secured a contract from the U.S. Department of State to support its Orion program. The real significance lies not just in the win, but in why it was awarded. Out of more than 40 bidders, only Palantir's software met the agency's rigorous requirements for an artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning solution, and its platform's compatibility across different agencies makes integration seamless.
This bolsters the argument that Palantir should be viewed as an operating system rather than a single product. That perspective extends beyond federal government work and implies a near-unlimited total addressable market (TAM).
Investors are particularly excited about the rapid expansion of Palantir's commercial segment. It represented roughly 25% of revenue two quarters ago but now accounts for over 40%, even as the overall opportunity continues to grow.
The Bear Case: Growth Will Eventually Normalize
Bears point out that, like many high-growth technology stocks, Palantir's rapid gains will ultimately slow due to the law of large numbers. When it does, sustaining the stock's lofty valuation could become challenging. Skeptics warn the market will compress Palantir's valuation multiple, which currently assumes near-perfect execution, especially given competition from major cloud providers and agile players like BigBear.ai.
Retail Conviction vs. Institutional Caution
Retail investors holding PLTR remain optimistic about Palantir's future growth, but that growth isn't guaranteed. Even with solid execution, the stock could underperform if expectations reset to more modest levels. The real risk isn't failure, but success at a slower pace than the current valuation implies.
Palantir's inclusion in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 underpins institutional interest. However, institutions may not share retail investors' conviction, potentially leading to short-term volatility.
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