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"The Buck Stops Here,"
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Behind the Markets
FedEx Delivers Good News: The Bottom Is in for This Stock
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 9/19/2025.
Key Points
- FedEx reported a solid quarter and is on track to accelerate growth and widen its margin.
- Analysts and institutional trends align with a stock price rebound in 2025.
- Dividends and share buybacks are reliable and provide incentives for investors.
FedEx's (NYSE: FDX) Q1 results sparked a 5% after-hours gain, suggesting the stock may have found a bottom.
Not only is the company sustaining growth, it also expects further acceleration, and its cost-saving initiatives position it for a leveraged earnings rebound.
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The report affirmed $1 billion in annualized structural cost savings, reflected in improving margins, income, and earnings.
The takeaway for investors: this transportation stock, which offers a market-beating dividend and trades near its long-term lows, is poised for a sustainable rally that could extend through next year and possibly beyond.
FedEx Outperforms, Widens Margins, Guides for Acceleration
FedEx delivered a strong quarter: U.S. volume improved, revenue sustained growth, and margins widened. Net revenues hit $22.2 billion (up 2.8%), driven by a 250-basis-point margin outperformance—while the core FedEx segment led gains, the Freight division contracted.
FedEx's Freight segment, a key element of its turnaround, remains on track for divestiture by June 2026.
Cost-saving initiatives and improving yields boosted gross and operating margins. Adjusted EPS came in at $3.83 (including a 2-cent boost from share repurchases), representing a 6.3% year-over-year increase—600 basis points above consensus.
Looking ahead, FedEx forecasts 4%–6% revenue growth, in line with prior guidance, and raised its adjusted EPS outlook to $17.20–$19.00, above consensus and well above analyst lows, reinforcing its strong financial and capital return outlook.
The capital return strategy remains a key driver. FedEx offers a market-beating dividend yield near 2.5% as of mid-September—more than double the broad market average—bolstered by ongoing share repurchases.
In Q1, FedEx repurchased $500 million of shares, reducing its share count by 2.5% year-over-year. Buybacks are expected to remain steady, with $1.6 billion still available under the current authorization—enough for another three quarters—and a new authorization anticipated by year-end.
FedEx Analyst Trends to Strengthen in Q3
Analysts maintain a bullish stance on FedEx, though through mid-September 2025 they issued more price-target cuts than raises. Still, Wall Street consensus is a Moderate Buy: 60% of analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate FDX as a Buy, with an average price target implying about 20% upside from the pre-release closing price.
In Q3, analysts are likely to revise estimates upward, further supporting the rebound thesis and potentially driving shares higher as the year unfolds.
Institutional investors have also provided a tailwind in Q3, accumulating positions. Institutions hold over 80% of FDX shares and, on balance, have been net buyers all year. In Q3 they bought $2 for every $1 sold and are expected to continue accumulating following the earnings release.
Technically, FDX looks constructive. After pulling back from early-2025 highs, the stock rebounded with the broader market in April and appears poised for another rally in September.
The post-earnings rally confirmed support around $225—a level above prior bounces and in line with broader market strength. Resistance lies near $235; a break above could propel FDX toward the consensus $275 target by early next year.
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