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Buy the Dip? GitLab's Bullish Case Outweighs the Bears
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 9/4/2025.
Key Points
- GitLab's underwhelming Q3 guidance gave the market an excuse to sell, opening up another dip-buying opportunity.
- The Q2 results and guidance are solid, showing strong growth and a widening margin.
- Analysts and institutional trends suggest the bottom is in and a rebound is brewing; it's only a matter of time.
GitLab's (NASDAQ: GTLB) FQ2 earnings report gave the market reasons to sell—tepid guidance and the sudden departure of its CFO—but also plenty of reasons to buy the dip: stronger-than-expected results, margin improvements and signs of momentum that suggest guidance may be conservative.
Overall, GitLab delivered a solid quarter, driven by the expansion of AI and global software development. The company sustains high growth and is guiding for more. The main takeaway: this profitable AI firm creates value for investors and remains deeply undervalued at early-September trading levels.
Valuation and Analysts Point to Double-Digit Upside for GTLB Stock
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While trading at more than 55x its 2025 consensus EPS, GitLab's valuation reflects robust growth expectations. Using the 2030 EPS consensus, the multiple falls to about 22x—a figure that could prove conservative. That sets the stock up for roughly 50% potential upside, aligning with analysts' optimistic sentiment.
Although analysts trimmed price targets over the past year, the consensus still implies about 35% upside.
As of early September, 25 analysts tracked by MarketBeat maintain a Moderate Buy rating with a bullish bias. While Q2 results may not trigger higher targets, they are equally unlikely to prompt significant cuts or downgrades, leaving the current consensus intact.
Currently trading in the low $40s, GitLab sits below the lowest analyst target, near long-term support—setting up a potential rebound this year.
GitLab Outperforms in Q2, Underwhelms With Guidance
In Q2, GitLab delivered $236 million in revenue, up 29.2%, beating consensus by about 400 basis points thanks to strong client growth and service penetration. The customer base grew 11% overall and 25% among enterprise clients, while net retention stood at 121%, signaling sustained expansion.
Other forward indicators, including remaining performance obligations (RPO), rose 32%, outpacing top-line growth.
Margin news was mixed but ultimately positive: a slight gross margin contraction was more than offset by expense control and revenue leverage. Net income jumped 67%, adjusted EPS soared 60%, and free cash flow exploded 350%.
GitLab forecasts continued growth, albeit at a decelerating pace slightly below consensus. Importantly, it reaffirmed revenue guidance despite stronger Q2 results, underscoring a cautious stance even as margin outlooks improved.
The company expects Q3 and full-year earnings to exceed consensus estimates and drive substantial cash flow.
GitLab's Balance Sheet Is a Reason to Buy the September Dip
GitLab's balance sheet remains fortress-like—and is only stronger post-Q2. Year to date, cash, inventory, and total assets rose, while current and total liabilities were flat to slightly higher; shareholders' equity climbed 11%.
Growth is self-funded: GitLab carries no long-term debt, and total liabilities stand at just 2.2x cash and 1.55x equity.
Price action in 2025 hasn't been spectacular but suggests a bottom. Institutional investors, owning nearly 100% of the float, have been net buyers each quarter in 2025—buyers outpacing sellers by more than 2-to-1, even into early Q3.
Institutions are likely to maintain this buying pattern. While the stock could dip toward $40, it should rebound—or at worst trade sideways—until a more potent market catalyst emerges.
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