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Berkshire-Backed Lennar Slides After Weak Q3 Earnings
Written by Leo Miller. Published 9/20/2025.
Key Points
- Homebuilder Lennar is one of Berkshire Hathaway's latest investments.
- Shares have gained over 20% since the end of June. However, Lennar's Q3 earnings appear to have disappointed markets.
- What do the firm's latest results and interest rate predictions signal about the stock's ability to continue rallying?
On Aug. 14, regulatory filings revealed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) had accumulated an approximately $800 million stake in U.S. homebuilder Lennar (NYSE: LEN) as of June 30. Since then, Lennar has delivered a total return of about 21% through Sept. 18, outpacing the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA: XHB)'s 16% gain. Expectations of lower interest rates have buoyed homebuilder stocks. However, Sept. 18 also marked Lennar’s first major test since Berkshire’s position was disclosed, when it reported its Q3 earnings after the close. Let’s break down the results and update the outlook.
Lennar Takes Nearly 50% Profit Cut as Selling Prices Sink
In Q3, Lennar reported revenue of $8.8 billion, a 6.5% decline that fell short of the $9.0 billion analysts expected. Excluding mark-to-market gains on its technology investments, the company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.00, a steep 49% drop from a year ago and below Wall Street’s $2.14 estimate (a 45% year-over-year decline).
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These declines came despite a slight increase in deliveries—Lennar closed on 21,584 homes in Q3, modestly above last year’s figure. Management has been offering significant discounts, pushing the average selling price down more than 9% to roughly $383,000.
The price cuts weighed heavily on margins. Lennar’s gross margin slipped 500 basis points to 17.5%, underscoring soft housing demand. Even with falling interest rates as a tailwind, the weak top- and bottom-line results highlight ongoing challenges.
Falling Rates but a Stable Q4 Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis-point rate cut earlier this quarter was precisely what homebuilders like Lennar wanted: lower financing costs for new projects and the potential to spur sales as mortgage rates decline. While mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed Funds Rate, they have already begun to ease in anticipation of further cuts.
As of Sept. 18, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.26%, down 9 basis points in one week and roughly 50 basis points since late June, according to Freddie Mac. Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors calls 6% a "magic" mortgage rate that could reignite home sales, and he expects the 30-year rate to reach that level by the end of 2025.
Despite the easing rates, Lennar’s Q4 guidance was muted. The company expects to deliver between 22,000 and 23,000 homes—up about 4% sequentially at the midpoint—and to maintain a gross margin near 17.5% with average selling prices of $380,000 to $390,000. Continued discounts appear likely, helping explain why shares fell more than 3% in after-hours trading on Sept. 18.
Interest Rates: The Key to Lennar's Future
Market participants have priced in a 92% chance of another 25 basis-point Fed cut in October and an 82% probability of a total 50 basis-point reduction by December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Such cuts would ease financing costs further and could help lift Lennar’s earnings.
Still, predicting rate moves is notoriously difficult, and economic data could sway forecasts. But most Fed forecasters and market analysts see the Fed Funds Rate trending lower over the coming years.
At roughly 15x forward earnings, Lennar trades about 50% above its three-year average forward P/E of 10.3x, suggesting investors are banking on lower rates to drive a rebound. If interest rates fall and the economy avoids a recession, Lennar's earnings could recover significantly, potentially sending the stock back to its all-time high—requiring about a 32% gain from current levels. If not, the shares may face further selling pressure.
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